Sports Analysis – The teams with the best chance to reach Super Bowl number 56 Latino

(c) 2022, Washington PostNeil Greenberg

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Parity took control of the NFL early in the season and hasn’t let go. In any one of the weeks, one could have chosen several teams to give them the title of favorites to win the superbowl, and a few days later that opinion changed due to a key loss or injury. Now, with the postseason starting this afternoon, oddsmakers have placed the Green Bay Packers, followed closely by the Kansas City Chiefs. However, neither of these teams has an almost certain chance of coming out on top.

There are many litmus tests used to separate the teams that intend to reach the superbowl of those who really have a chance to get there; But one of the most accurate methods focuses on the performance of teams against each other in certain situations. The easiest way to measure this is through what is called Expected Extra Points (EPA), which calculates how many points a team scores (offense) or allows (defense) compared to an average team using the same move under similar circumstances, e.g. the same attempt (called down), the same distance required and the same position on the field. The higher the EPA, the greater the team’s chance of success in the field.

Since 2002, the first year of the league’s expansion to 32 franchises, the team with the highest EPA at the end of the regular season has won 61 percent of its postseason games, with the main advantage coming in the divisional round (.671). Teams ranked in the top 10 in EPA terms in both offense and defense during the regular season won 76 percent of their games. playoffs and his record in superbowl It was 6 wins and 2 losses. Those who finished in the top five either on offense or defense won 74 percent of their postseason games and had a 3-and-5 record in the championship game. And teams that weren’t in the top ten in either category had a record of just 18 and 64 (.281), made it to superbowl four times and they lost each time.

We can use these ratings to try to determine the top-ranked teams in a tight postseason. And in that process we can eliminate the highest ranked team in the American Conference (AFC) from the list of serious contenders.

The Tennessee Titans they don’t rank in the top five in EPA, either on offense or defense, and their EPA on offense is at level fifteen. While they will certainly benefit from the return of their star running back Derrick Henry, history suggests that the titans do not have the elite level of production that is required to reach the superbowl. Therefore, there is better value between the other teams.

The following is the list of the main contenders to reach the superbowl 56, in groups from higher to lower probability.

Top contenders (in the top 10 in EPA from both sides of the field).

Ranked 2nd in National Conference (NFC): Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Third in attacking EPA and seventh in defensive EPA.

The immortal Tom Brady was one of the quarterbacks (quarterback) most effective and most valuable of 2021 regardless of the yardstick one uses to measure his performance, and he’s going to be a tough opponent in this postseason as well. The defense also proved up to the challenge, allowing 1.5 points each time their opponent was on offense during the regular season (second-best), while stopping a league-leading 26 percent shooting average. runners before or at the starting line of the play.

Third-tier AFC qualifiers: buffalo bills.

Seventh in attacking EPA and first in defensive EPA.

buffalo was one of the best defensive teams all season, conceding just 1.5 points per opportunity to opponents (best in the league) and avoiding about ten points per game when measuring opportunity, distance and field position of each play. His offense was also good, scoring 2.6 points per opportunity with the ball (4th best) and 1.8 points more than expected per game.

Number three in the NFC: Dallas Cowboys

Sixth in attacking EPA and third in defensive EPA

Dak Prescott wasn’t mentioned enough (quarterback of the cowboys) during the regular season, but the 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year was the ninth most valuable quarterback of 2021 based on so-called total or overall rating (Total Quarterback Rating). With him at the head of the team, the cowboys they scored 2.4 points per opportunity with the ball (eighth best) and had one of the best percentages (63 percent, sixth) in the so-called red zone (within twenty yards of a touchdown or touch down).

On the other side of the ball is the linebacker (linebacker) rookie Micah Parsons, favorite for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award and one of the highest-rated players on defense regardless of his years in the league, according to the magazine ProFootballFocus. He was credited for 84 tackles, including 13 to the opposing quarterback behind the starting line (sacks), and did not allow a score in his coverage responsibility through 284 snaps all season.

Next level (top five in either attacking or defending EPA).

First NFC Qualifier: Green Bay Packers.

First in attacking EPA, and number 22 in defense EPA.

The attack, led by leading MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers, has been tough to stop this season. The team scored nearly six more points than expected per game in the regular season, and Rodgers’ shooting to catcher Devante Adams gets credit for most of those points. The duo scored almost 75 more points than expected this season in fifteen games, a total surpassed only by the combination of the rams quarterback Matt Stafford and receiver Cooper Kupp.

AFC Second Qualifier: Kansas City Chiefs.

Second in attacking EPA and number 23 in defensive EPA.

Coach Andy Reid was looking for answers after starting the season with a 3-4 record and managed to get the chiefs will settle down and win eight straight, beating five of the teams that will participate in the postseason this year between those rivals. The defense had a massive turnaround, dropping seven points per game after allowing nine more than expected per game through the first seven weeks of the regular season.

NFC Qualified 4th: Los Angeles Rams.

Fifth in attacking EPA and eleventh in defensive EPA.

Coach Sean McVay was fortunate to have on his team Cooper Kupp, an all-time top receiver who became the first player since 2005 to lead the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and touchdowns via pass (16). The defense is also anchored in Aaron Donald, who could well be the best defensive player in recent seasons. Donald finished the 2021 season as the highest-rated defensive line player – according to the magazine ProFootballFocus – after accumulating 12.5 opposing quarterback tackles behind the line and 84 opposing quarterback pressures.

Sixth place in the AFC: New England Patriots.

Eleventh in attacking EPA and fourth in defense EPA.

The Patriots faltered at the beginning of the season but settled down and won seven in a row between weeks seven and thirteen, a streak that included wins against the titans and the Bills. The defense led the effort, saving seven points per game during the regular season. But his chances in the postseason likely rest on rookie quarterback Mac Jones, the 10th-best pitcher of 2021 according to ProFootballFocus.

The rest of the teams

The statistics indicate that these teams are not very well positioned to reach the superbowl.

First in the AFC: Tennessee Titans.

No. 15 in attacking EPA, No. 9 in defensive EPA.

Fourth in the AFC: Cincinnati Bengals.

No. 13 in attacking EPA, No. 10 in defensive EPA.

Fifth in the NFC: arizona cardinals.

No. 12 in attacking EPA, No. 6 in defensive EPA.

Fifth in the AFC: las vegas raiders.

No. 18 in attacking EPA, No. 29 in defensive EPA.

Sixth in the NFC: San Francisco 49ers.

No. 8 in attacking EPA, No. 13 in defensive EPA.

Seventh in the NFC: philadelphia eagles.

No. 9 in attacking EPA, No. 18 in defensive EPA.

Seventh in the AFC: Pittsburgh Steelers.

No. 25 in attacking EPA, No. 14 in defensive EPA.

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Sports Analysis – The teams with the best chance to reach Super Bowl number 56 Latino