It is, indeed, the best, yes, the best, disease that can invade your mind. The “emotion-induced brain fog” is back. What is that? You’re so excited about something, in this case the NFL season, that you forget about regular events.
That event occurs at the start of every NFL season. Here’s the formula: High expectations and long absences from football equals EIBF fans.
EIBF will infiltrate NFL television rooms and stadiums beginning Thursday with the Bills-Rams and continuing through September. So, I’ve compiled everything you need to remember at the start of the 2022 season to combat the EIBF feeling.
In the first week there is always a terrible discomfort or a strange result.
[Samuel L. Jackson voice] “Hold your butts.” This is what is going to happen. Get ready. Do you need proof? I understand you.
In 2021, Santos fell into the wall Bakery, 38-3, you know the same Green Bay club will win 13 of its next 16 games and be the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. In the covid year of 2020, eventually 1-15 jaguars Overcoming the limit of the playoffs foals In a rare Week 1 matchup, Gardner Minshue fumbled and Jonathan Taylor averaged 2.4 yards per carry. Pretty normal, right?
However, there are no regrets tearing up the landscape in 2019 lions Y cardinals It was tied 27-27 in Kyler Murray’s first NFL game. Arizona scored six points in three quarters before exploding for 18 in the fourth, and Detroit linebacker Christian Jones dropped what would have been the game-clinching interception in overtime. Same day, 11-5 at the end Seahawks Needing a fourth quarter, a Russell Wilson touchdown to Tyler Lockett finally made it 2-14. Bengal, 21–20. Weird.
At the beginning of the previous season, The buccaneersHe eventually went 5-11, lifting the NFC North champions 13-3. Saints, 48–40. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 14.9 yards per attempt (!) and had a QB rating of 156.3. Santos would finish eighth Football Outsiders Defensive DVOAAll-inclusive performance measurement.
In 2017, 5-11 broncos won 9-7 chargers. In 2016, a 49ers A team that ultimately finished 2-14 looked like the most complete team in football going 28-0. Los Angeles Rams. Blaine Gabbert was the starter for San Francisco that afternoon. Jeremy Kerley led the way with 49 runs. Hell, even in 2015, San Francisco won vikings, 20-3, in Week 1. The 49ers finished 5-11. The Vikings won the NFC North 11-5.
So if a score doesn’t feel right in your football-loving bones in Week 1, it isn’t. A cam always enters backwards through a door.
At least one team will go from last place in their division a season ago to first this year
Hears, ravenslions, JetsBroncos, Jaguars, giantsSeahawks, et al. cheetahs – I have good news! At least one of you is going to win your division this season. Really! Not lie. The story says so. basically. In 17 of the last 19 seasons, this seemingly impossible event has occurred.
Remember, going from worst to first is not always the most obvious choice. How about last year, when the Bengals, previously 4-11-1, went on a scorched-earth rampage to win the AFC North? testers In the first round of the playoffs, the No. 1 seed moved up titans In Nashville, the last two shocked the sports world by erasing 14-point deficits. leaders at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship.
The worst happens first. Hook!
Your team must be highly qualified.
Yes, this is the basic appeal of the NFL Analytics movement. It was included in last year’s article. But it’s true, no matter how angry you are. Your team needs to spend more this season. You can start by making the first try often. Only five teams — the Colts, Seahawks, Eagles, brownsAnd the Buccaneers — they had a positive EPA on all rushing plays.
Now, if the analysis of the new age exist You may be aware of your topic, Expected Points (EPA). If they don’t, assign points to plays that correspond to expectations for a given situation based on a short all-time history. And “history of all time” is a pretty large sample size, don’t you think?
In 2021, there were 10 teams that finished with a negative EPA on passing plays, which is actually the highest number in recent memory. By contrast, 27 teams had a negative EPA on running plays. Big difference.
And don’t even get me started on the first few runs. I propose that they be eradicated from every offensive game plan in the NFL.
This explains why the EPA of every team in a preseason rushes football and the historically overlooked but important first try.
Keep in mind the basic differences between running and passing. Amazing. Only the Colts, with Jonathan Taylor and probably the most pulverizing downfield offensive line in the league, had a positive EPA on first-down rushing plays. Read it again. Meanwhile, only five teams had a negative EPA on passing plays. That is all!
My argument is over.
Pay attention to the point difference!
Beatdowns in the NFL matter. This is why. Six of the last seven and seven of the last nine Super Bowl winners finished in the top 5 in points margin during the regular season. We’ve had great Super Bowl teams with a 5 point differential until last year when the Rams took home the Lombardi Trophy and got those epic Super Bowl rings.
But hey, Los Angeles isn’t some dark outlier. The team was sixth by points difference. It’s fun to randomly cut the top 5 because it’s a round number, right? What is the average point differential for Super Bowl winners? Over the past six seasons, they have averaged a point spread of 8.58 points per game, which equates to almost +146 points in point spread during the regular season prior to the season.
I mention this because teams often win a series of close games which of course leads to a quality record and said team is really good. In fact, in almost all cases, the team is not as good as its record. As the season progresses, it’s a good idea to check a team’s point differential before their record. No disrespect, Bill Parcels. But the clubs are not what their file says.
let’s use 2021 Bills For example. They went a solid but unspectacular 11-6 in the regular season, but led the NFL in point difference at +194. Now, of course, one bad rebound here or a miscommunication in the playoffs and you’re out, and the latter is precisely what happened to Buffalo. But we all saw it. That Bills team is Super Bowl caliber. Point difference was a stronger indicator of a team’s quality than its record.
The Saints will have a chance to make NFL history by defeating all five “bird teams” this season.
Dizzy. At no time in the long history of the NFL has one team beat all the Bird teams: the Eagles, Ravens, Cardinals, falcons, and the Seahawks during the same season. Of course, the programming cosmos must align for a club to have a chance of pulling off such a feat. The Cosmos have adjusted to give the Saints a chance to do so this season.
Your team must get the most out of the game, regardless of their situation on the field of play.
There is an analytical community. I analyze it — has nothing to do with the success of the running game action game skills. No matter how you run it: the feature is, again, the broker committee. A trivial difference.
Last year, 28 of the top 30 rated quarterbacks in play-action yards per attempt (YPA) had more YPA when using play-action than when not. Of course, a drastic difference in sample size must be considered here. But hello, offensive coordinators. It’s time to take advantage of the game action section of the call sheet more often.
If we watch too much of our game because it’s expected, does it become ineffective? Nobody really knows. But you better believe your team’s offensive coordinator will try to find the optimal usage rate this season.
There are new teams in the playoffs
In 2021, half of the entire playoff bracket will be new teams, clubs that didn’t qualify for the postseason the year before. In 2020, there were six new playoff teams. This is close to normal averages in recent history. So, “lime” refers to the postseason half of each season. Adjust your season predictions accordingly.
Now, after reading this article, you have completely combated emotion-induced brain fog. You’d better go. Enjoy every second of the 2022 season.
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Kickoff to the 2022 NFL Season: Stats, Tips and Facts Every Fan Should Remember as They Enter Week 1