You can forgive us for having our attention turned the other way around 4:16 p.m. ET on July 30 (16 minutes past the trade limit), when the news emerged that the Braves had acquired Cuban Jorge Soler since the Royals. Elsewhere, Kris Bryant was reaching the Giants, Puerto Rican Javier Báez to the Mets, Craig Kimbrel to the White Sox.
Soler wasn’t the only patrol car Atlanta acquired that day. The trades for Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario were announced within minutes of each other and Joc Pederson acquired him on July 15.
But with more than a week to analyze the trades, Soler so far looks like “the theft” of the 2021 deadline.
Soler has been a catalyst for a Braves team that needed a boost after losing Ronald Acuña Jr. for the rest of the year. Since its first game after the All-Star Game on July 16, Atlanta alternated wins and losses for 18 games in a row (the mark for the modern era), to hold a perennial record of .500. Obviously, Soler only has a week with the team, but what were the first results? .360 / .467 / .720 with three home runs and six runs scored in six games.
It’s too small a sample, but those who have watched the Royals in recent years can tell the moment the Braves made the trade was perfect. Soler started off badly in 2021, ending May hitting .178 / .157 / .314 with just four homers in 195 times at bat. In June (.205 / .341 / .329, two home runs) the story didn’t change much. The Cuban’s first 12 games in July (.167 / .231 / .278, a home run) continued the same trend. Even with the Royals, questions began about his permanence in the lineup on a daily basis.
But something clicked when Soler homered at Milwaukee on July 20 – just 10 days before the deadline – and then hit another home run the next day. Since that date, Soler has looked more in the form of 2019, when he led the American League in home runs. According to Statcast’s expected wOBA (which combines the quality of batter contact with strikeouts and walks), Soler is the hottest hitter in the majors.
Best wOBA expected since July 20
Min. 50 VB, until the day of Saturday
1) Jorge Soler (ATL): .545
expected wOBA: How the players should hit, based on the quality of the contact + BB + K.
Expected stats support Soler’s real-life numbers since July 20: .283 / .387 / .755 (.467 from wOBA) with eight home runs in 15 games.
Credit to the Braves for getting Soler at the right time, but management probably recognized how he was getting off to a good start compared to earlier this season. What he’s done lately is similar to what Soler achieved when he hit 48 home runs in 2019.
2019: 50% hard hits, 16.6% barrel rate, 26.2 K%, 10.8 BB%, .393 expected wOBA
2021: 51.5% of hard hits, 13.9% rate of barrels, 26.6 of K% 10.6 of BB%, .354 of expected wOBA
Soler is in the top 15% hitters in the league for hard hitting rate and barrels (best contact possible) and it’s hard for a player to keep slugging below .400 when he’s hitting the ball that well. . True, Soler gives away a lot of at-bats with strikeouts, but he also did that in 2019, when he led the American League in homers and fans (178). Even so, Statcast still sees him as one of the less fortunate hitters.
Longer “no luck gap”, supported by expected and actual wOBA in 2021
Min. 250 VB, until the day of Saturday
1) Jorge Soler (ATL): 56 points (Expected: .354; Actual: .298)
Average wOBA in MLB: .314
Is “luck” the only explanation for Soler’s terrible first half? Perhaps you are starting to build your own fortune. Three days before being traded, the Cuban said that he had made an adjustment in his hands that would allow him to release the swing better. That seems to have benefited him both in the angles of departure and in his innate power. Good things happen when you combine heavy hits and barrels.
MLB hitters have a slugging of less than .200 when hitting balls that Statcast qualifies as “low hits” that go through the air, but have a low exit velocity or have a very low exit angle. high enough to hurt. They are slugging 1,100 with hits in the “sweet zone” (8-32 degree angle) and over 2,500 with barrels (line and fly with the greatest amount of force behind). If Soler was late on pitching, that might explain how, despite his exit velocities, he was not putting the ball into play productively. That has changed in recent weeks.
Soler will not continue to homer every other game and his below-average outfielder measurement could cause him to miss a few at-bats if he ends up sharing the job with Rosario when he returns from the disabled list.
But what if he does not slow down and it is difficult to take away the position of undisputed starter? Then it would be a new powerhouse that helps Atlanta fill part of the void left by Acuña and Marcell Ozuna.
And all, yielding only to ligminorista Kasey Kalich, who is shaping up to be more of a future reliever than a rotation ace.
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