American football season is over. The problems of the NFL do not

Bloomberg Opinion — A season of rising ratings for professional football has been capped by what was expected to be the most-watched Super Bowl in history. In the wake of Sunday night’s thrilling win for the Los Angeles Rams, blissfully exhausted fans will put aside face paint and giant number one foam fingers until fall, and smile all summer long. with the simple confidence that the future of America’s most popular sport is bright and shining.

But the trust might not be right. Yes, the National Football League (NFL) seems more powerful than ever, but borrowing from Asimov, the hollow tree seems as strong as ever until the storm breaks it to pieces.

And the storms accumulate.

Let’s see a couple.

First, the elephant in the stadium: The league’s domestic violence problem isn’t going away. Although NFL players appear to be less likely to be accused of violence against women than men in the general population, that’s the wrong comparison. The correct one is that they are much more likely to be arrested for the crime than men in other fields who earn similar compensation.

The NFL has a very strict policy on domestic violence, but a 2021 study found that the policy is, to put it mildly, lax. At the same time, the league has been accused of enforcing the policy primarily when the player involved is not a star. Informal reports suggest that NFL players are more likely than the general male population to have domestic violence charges dropped. Furthermore, accused players rarely show remorse.

I am certainly not suggesting that all defendants are guilty. But the perception that a link between football and violence persists. To beat it, the league will have to be firmer and fairer in enforcing its policies.

Another suggestion: do the draft carefully. NFL teams often draft players who were charged with violent crimes in college, a practice sportswriters call “taking a chance.” But the numbers tell us that football is like other walks of life. The best indicator of whether a player will commit a crime of violence in the future is that he has committed one in the past. It is not the team that is taking the risk, but the player’s girlfriend or spouse.

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Now let’s talk about television audiences. Although this column was written before we had the numbers for the Super Bowl, many in the media have been touting analytics firm PredictHQ’s forecast that this year’s game would be the most-watched in history.

But this year’s eye-popping numbers could be outliers. Prior to this weekend, Super Bowl household ratings (percentage of households that watch) had been on a six-year downward trend. Last year’s 38.2% figure was the lowest since 1969. Also, in the 18-49 demographic, the numbers have plummeted. In 2021, only 26% of the demographic tuned in, the lowest on record. In short, it is too early to tell if the downward spiral has been reversed; and even a temporary increase won’t matter in the long run if the league can’t attract younger viewers.

Also, the cause of the increase is important. NFL viewership ratings for regular-season games had been falling steadily until 2017, when the U.S. Supreme Court did the league a favor by striking down the federal law that banned most states. legalize sports betting. Since then, the league’s audience has risen every year, except for 2020, interrupted by the pandemic. Perhaps the renewed interest is related to the explosion of sports betting.

Betting on professional and college games is now legal in at least 30 states. The NFL is associated with (ie receives money from sponsors) a number of betting entities. Fans bet not only on games, but also on what are called “props”: who will score the first touchdown, how many times a quarterback will be tackled, etc. They can even bet on whether the team that wins the coin toss will go on offense. (The league itself has made a big gamble by deciding to accept advertising from gambling sites, and the typical broadcast now seems to feature more sports betting ads than the league’s traditional mainstays, cars and beer.)

But does the NFL really want to bet on a future in which what attracts viewers is the possibility of making money? Watch out for the reaction. Even the Supreme Court, in striking down the federal ban, warned that requiring a state to allow sports betting was “an important political decision” because of the potential for corruption and addiction, along with the possibility that “people of modest means ” can “squander their savings and earnings”.

Please don’t get me wrong. The libertarian in me certainly doesn’t think gambling should be banned. I’m just not sure how long the NFL can survive in its current form if his plan is to become the televised equivalent of a day at the racetrack.

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There are other challenges: politics, concussions, the upcoming collapse of the player portfolio as high school football participation rates plummet, and, of course, the issue of race, which I wrote about recently. , but there is not much space.

My storm warnings are not for pleasure. I have been a committed fan since November 12, 1967, when my mother took me to Washington Stadium to watch my first game. (Washington 31, San Francisco 28. Look it up.) But the data is what it is, and I’m uneasy about the future of the game I love.

This note does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

This article was translated by Estefanía Salinas Concha.