Welcome to the NFL Betting Trends of Week 4. After three regular season games, bettors are becoming more confident about how teams will perform, yet there can always be surprises. Therefore, in our weekly section, Ricardo de la Huerta analyzes the bets of greatest interest for this weekend’s games.
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At the moment, these are the darlings of the betting public for week 4 of the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots
91% of the bets are with Buccaneers -7
A certain Tom Brady returns to Foxborough and punters are ready to back him. This line has moved between -6.5 to -7.5 so there is no excuse not to have the best number available according to your preferences (-6.5 for Bucs and +7.5 for Pats).
Tampa is the best team and the defending champion, but the Patriots have played well and could easily be 3-0 so a line longer than a touchdown seems excessive to me.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers
82% of bets are with Packers -6.5
The recipe for betting on Mike Tomlin is very simple and his statistics against the spread prove it:
- Tomlin as a visiting favorite against a team with a losing record: 34% effective.
- Tomlin as a visiting underdog against a team with a winning record: 75% effective.
It’s all I need to know. #TomlinSpecial
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Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
80% of the bets are with Ravens +1
This will be the first real test for the Denver Broncos. They go 3-0 and are a top-five defense based on advanced DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistics, but their opponents have a combined 0-9 record. After this week we will know a lot about this team.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
73% of bets are with Lions +3
We have this perception that the Lions are a “fighting” team that never gives up and has competed at times against superior opponents. This narrative works when you have an underdog of a touchdown or more on your side, but this line is only 3 points.
Justin Fields looked bad in his NFL debut, but he’s still a dynamic quarterback who can give a Lions secondary defense full of rookies and sophomores in trouble.
Tennesse Titans @ New York Jets
71% of the bets are with Titans -7
Cheat match for the Titans. Julio Jones and AJ Brown are not playing so Tennessee’s attack becomes one-dimensional. I know Derrick Henry is on the other side, but the Jets’ run defense hasn’t looked too bad.
The other Zach Wilson will have a simpler game. In his first three performances the rookie has faced 3 of the 5 best pass defenses in the league. Tennessee is number 22.
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These are the NFL 2021 Week 4 betting trends, presented by Instabet. We await your comments.