After two years of adaptation, the era of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has started. And it’s here for a reason that nobody expected, given the ease that the father had to swing. For those who are not aware, the Dominican is fighting for the three lines of the Triple Crown of the American League and his Baseball-Reference page is littered with numbers in bold (indicating that he is a leader). It’s what many predicted at the time, after being a prospect with a perfect 80 on his batting evaluation.
Guerrero have a prodigious power, with which he destroyed the minor leagues. But many were even more impressed with his sight. He finished his career in the minors with more walks (151) than strikeouts (139) and was on the bases 41% of the time, proving to be much more of a hitter who hits pitches at his ankles. It is the recognition of the strike zone and its discipline that is driving Guerrero’s rise. It all comes down to two important trends.
Out-of-Zone Pitch Chasing Rate, 2019-2021 Starting Friday
- 2019: 28.9% (47th percentile among MLB qualified hitters)
- 2020: 24.6% (64th century)
- 2021: 20.7% (86th percentile)
Percentage of “poor contact”, 2019-2021 Starting the day on Friday
- 2019: 63.2%
- 2020: 65.0%
- 2021: 53.1%
Poor contact: Hit on the ground or through the air that has been weakly connected.
It’s a simple way of summing up how much you’ve improved as a hitter, doing something that isn’t easy at all: “Avoid swinging bad pitches.”
It looks like Guerrero has created his own strike zone and is getting thrown there. He’s putting the bat on his shoulders, and according to Statcast, you might have a case for saying he’s the hitter who makes the best decisions at the plate.
** Total value of runs per swing / decisions, 2021
Starting the day on Friday
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): + 40 **
- Nick Castellanos (CIN): +24
- Jesse Winker (CIN): +24
- Shohei Ohtani (LAA): +23
- Rafael Devers (BOS): +22
- JD Martínez (BOS): +22
The decisions of the swings take value with each batter, according to whether it is a ball or strike, if the player swung or missed the pitch and finally what would have happened had he put the ball in play. If it’s a shot down the middle of the plate, you get a score for hitting it. If it’s one on the corner, you get credit for letting it go.
The Dominican leads that table, especially when it comes to the “heart” of the area. But those pitches aren’t the same for everyone. Each player has their own hot and cold zone. In Guerrero’s first two seasons, his hot spots were down and in and up where he could extend his arms.
Meanwhile, the cold zones of Guerrero were where young hitters tend to struggle: Down and out and out in general. See how his swings have changed in 2021.
There is the heart of the area and then there is the true heart of the area; where are most of the red squares. Guerrero’s swing has focused on where all the players want to hit; from the middle up and down and glued. Guerrero is relying less on swings that lead him to hit the ground.
The majority of Guerrero’s 23 home runs of the year have been in those hot spots. Let’s not forget the other thing – the weight loss helped you focus and strengthen the flexibility that is helping you detonate home runs.
Rate of barrels per ball hit vs. pitches in the “heart” of the zone Starting the day on Friday
- 2019: 9.6%
- 2020: 13.3%
- 2021: 18.3%
What does all that good contact mean? No one besides compatriot Fernando Tatis Jr. has gotten more out of those desirable pitches than Vladi.
Greater slugging vs. pitches in the “heart”
At least 75 times at bat that have ended with pitches in the “heart”, starting the day on Friday
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD): 1,036
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): .970
- Brandon Crawford (SF): .949
- Salvador Pérez (KC): .871
- Nick Castellanos (CIN): .869
No one doubted Guerrero’s ability to make mistakes pay when he faced minor league pitchers. Now it seems that the problems of the Dominican in 2019-2020 do not mean anything more than a period of adaptation, in the general plane of things. He has found his hot zone and his discipline leads him to see pitches there.
Matt Kelly / MLB.com
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