It’s hard to believe, but we’ve reached the last month of the 2021 regular season. (Well, not counting those three days in October that are part of the regular season …)
It’s also hard to conceive that just a month ago, the Braves were 4.0 games behind a leading Mets team in the NL East and that the Rays and Red Sox held big leads over the Yankees in the AL East. .
Things can change from one moment to the next and there is enough to define, so that we have a very captivating season finale.
Here are six predictions for the final stretch of the regular season.
1. The Dodgers will win the National League West.
This will be the only divisional race in which there will be a change of pointer in the last month. (Congratulations to the Rays, White Sox, Astros, Braves and Brewers.) This will be one of the few times a team wins 100 games in the regular season and finishes second in its division. (It would be the fifth time it happened in the divisional era and the first time since the Yankees won 100 in 2018, but they finished second behind a Red Sox team that won 108.)
The Giants do not deserve to be a second-place team and this forecast should not be construed as disrespectful to them. The depth that San Francisco has built and the way they have handled loads have taken them further than we anticipated.
But the Dodgers are a better team, in large part because they added Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the trade deadline. Los Angeles entered Thursday with a +70 run differential in the second half, compared to +26 for the Giants. The Dodgers have struggled to gain ground in the NL West because San Francisco, which won nine straight series before losing two of three games in Atlanta, hasn’t taken its foot off the gas. But starting from their three-game series in San Francisco this weekend, the Dodgers are going to craft the most suffered of their nine consecutive divisional crowns.
2. Forget a Wild Card Game between the Yankees and Red Sox.
Too many people dream of this match (“Gerrit Cole vs. Chris Sale!”) To convince me that it is actually going to happen. Something is going to stop it, because that’s the way baseball is.
Perhaps the Yankees will overtake the Rays for the East title, although I personally doubt that Wander Franco and company are going to allow that to happen.
Most likely, the Red Sox will be displaced by another team. It could be the Blue Jays with a healthy George Springer and a lot of games against the Orioles. It would be a great story.
Or, it could be the Mariners, who still have a chance, mathematically, of making the postseason for the first time in 20 years. It would also be a great story.
But I’m going the easy way and I’m going to predict that the Yankees and Athletics will meet in the American League Wild Card Game for the second time in four years.
3. We will need a tiebreaker to define the second National League Wild Card.
Begging for a playoff game that won’t happen: One of the best traditions.
But it may happen this year. The Reds and Padres came to you in September, with the Cardinals, Phillies, and – if we want to be extremely generous – the Mets still in contention.
Philadelphia could still put pressure on the Braves in the NL East, and Cincinnati and San Diego in the Old Circuit Wildcard, but JT Realmuto’s injury packs a punch for an already inconsistent club. We give New York a thumbs down.
My crystal ball sees the Phillies still in the fight for the past week, but they will be hit hard by a recent late inning loss to the Marlins. The Reds will take a one-game lead on the final day, but are punished by the Pirates, while the Friars overtake the Giants as the Dodgers secure the division and force a playoff Monday.
And thanks to the tiebreaker …
4. Fernando Tatis Jr. will make history.
With 36 homers, the Dominican shortstop enters the last month with a great advantage among the leaders of the Old Circuit. The closest are tied at 30. And with 24 scams, Tatis is two behind leader Trea Turner.
Although Game 163 will not go in San Diego’s favor, the statistics count as a regular season game. And for that, Tatis will use the extra game to steal second base and get past Turner. Thus, the Dominican will become only the second player of the Modern Era – joining Chuck Klein of the Phillies (1932) – to lead his circuit in both home runs and swindles.
That will make voting for MVP of the Old Circuit easier.
Speaking of easy choices.
5. Shohei Ohtani will hit 50 homers.
He went into September with 42. But only nine of those homers have come since Ohtani decided to participate in the Home Run Festival, be a starting pitcher and leadoff hitter, a stadium salesman and even an organist at the All-Star festivities. He has some fatigue, so no one can blame him. So 50 homers could be unattainable.
But let’s dream big: Ohtani will not only become the first pitcher to lead the majors in home runs, but he will also do so with a round number. Babe Ruth didn’t reach 50 (actually 30 or 40) until he became a full-time position player. Ohtani still has a realistic chance of doing that while leading his club in ERA.
This is completely awesome.
Speaking of awesome …
6. We will see another no-hitter.
As it stands, the eight no-hitters this season (not counting the two in seven-inning games) tie the all-time record set way back in 1884. But just like Grover Cleveland took down James G. Blaine in a closely contested US presidential election in 1884, the 2021 season is going to take sole position atop the no-hit hierarchy in this final month by the slimmest of margins with one more no-no.
(I’d say who will pitch the ninth, but I don’t want to spoil the Mariners’ Marco Gonzales surprise.)
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