Miguel Cabrera begins the second part of the season with only 53 hits and a projection that would make him finish with 109 undisputed in 2021, which would allow him to reach 2,975 in his brilliant career in the Major Leagues.
It is not a bad number. But neither is it the goal that Cabrera and his MLB fans set for themselves before starting the season.
Can the famous Venezuelan hitter reach 3,000 hits in this same tournament? Is it feasible to see him step on the accelerator to close with the longed-for three thousand?
Cabrera will be the next member of that brotherhood, unless a sports catastrophe occurs. There’s no doubt. The doubt, in any case, revolves around the date when he will finally complete his appointment with history.
The simple projection, which can be consulted on his personal page at ESPN.com, does not draw a direct line with the number that will ultimately reach. To calculate it, just make a rule of three that takes into account how many games he has played, how many rockets he has launched and how many duels his Detroit Tigers have left.
Cabrera may suffer exact ups and downs in the remainder of July, August and September. Have him stay in the lineup with similar regularity and hit no-man’s-land at more or less the same rate.
But the Maracay-born slugger hit a hard-to-beat bump in the first two months. In that period, between April and May, he hit .184, an unusual average, for a stretch in which he played 37 matches.
The proof that it can still bring much more than that is in its June production. In that month alone he hit .329 and in total he had 28 hits. He was, in a way, the producer that all his fans expected to see.
The ideal vs the feasible
If Cabrera could replicate that figure in each of the three remaining months, he would accumulate 84 more undisputed and dismiss the year with 3,003 undisputed. So, indeed, it does seem possible.
But it won’t be easy. Julio started slower for him, with .250 on nine stops. Each season faces ups and downs for every player. There is no professional sport with a longer calendar than MLB baseball. There are 162 crashes, six per week, practically one every day for half the year.
Assuming that Cabrera suffers logical ups and downs, without reaching the unusual downturn that attacked him between April and May, he would stay very close to the goal. It is shown by the button that represents what you have done since June 1.
Since then he has a .308 average, an outstanding record. It adds up to 2,927 indisputable. He needs 73 more and Detroit has 71 shots left to play.
Cabrera is not going to play in all those games. Counting from that June 1, he has been in the lineup 31 times and in another six he has stayed on the bench, resting or healing ailments.
The new rule of three, counting possible swings and taking this last period as an example of something feasible, implies that the Venezuelan projects 69 more uncatchable, with between 10-12 days off. That would put him at 2,996.
Yes, it is doable. Cabrera can reach 3,000 hits this season. But it will need to produce almost as much as in June, without suffering new deep potholes. Otherwise, he will knock on the club’s door, yes, but he will have to wait until next year to enter.