As the offseason approaches, a thought haunts the Los Angeles Dodgers management. The list of free agents that will leave the last out of the 2021 MLB season for the California team is extensive and remarkable.
The names that are looming may seem at a cursory glance to be inevitably linked forever with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and Corey Seager have been players in the franchise since they first wore an MLB uniform.
From another perspective, there are other names that are not traditional, but that in more or less time have fitted into the team’s philosophy. Then Chris Taylor appears leading the second group, but which has been joined with incredible speed and ease by Max Scherzer. Corey Knebel could also be part of this group, at least in the mind of Dave Roberts, who this postseason has made him his favorite “opener”.
The #Dodgers seeing that Max Scherzer (leader in ERA, WHIP and BAA in the #MLB), Corey Seager (.800+ OPS in all seasons since 2019), Clayton Kershaw (2.81 xFIP in 2021) and Chris Taylor (13 SB, 90 R, 4 3B in 2021) will be free agents in 2022 pic.twitter.com/8SG4SysjjN
– Sparkball (@Spark_Ball) September 22, 2021
To close the second platoon we have Mariachi Joe Kelly, who at times seemed like a chain of diamonds, expensive but of little use value, beyond the dispute with Carlos Correa. However, he has reinvented himself with his Knukle Curve after last offseason surgery that kept him away for some time and has undoubtedly become a much better pitcher than the one who will collect 12 million at the end of 2021.
Of the rest, only Albert Pujols is an asset with commercial value. Beyond what the future member of the Hall of Fame can contribute on the field of play is his added value in the dogout, the grip that has gone viral so many times, the wise advice from the experience of a long career full of records and, of course, the never under-weighted contribution of merchandise sales income that the Dominican generates in the official stores of the Los Angeles Dodgers and the MLB.
Separate point for the nebula, the black hole, the man who arrived with ballots to turn the Dodgers and their rotation into the terror of the MLB and who ended up going on administrative leave shortly before the All-Star Game and who still has a quite uncertain future. Trevor Bauer has an option provided in his contract to his decision for a second year with the team, which, given the course of things, does not seem to be going to materialize.
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ payroll for 2021 exceeded 237 million. This value includes everything that is paid in the current year taking into account previous bonuses and deferred payments. However, the value used to calculate the luxury rate uses the annual average for multi-year contracts, which puts this value at 256.9 million. The tax paid in the 2021 season exceeds 17 million, scalable if maintained in current conditions.
If we add to that the fact that it is discussed with great force as part of the new Agreement (the current one expires on December 1, 2021) to reduce the luxury threshold to 180 million the situation for the renewals of the Dodgers and new signatures in the dead season it will be very complex, even though this number must have an implementation process.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, with players not expiring, are at $ 206.2 million for the 2022 season. Just 3.8 from the current luxury threshold.
To save money, Trevor Bauer’s 35.33 million could fall from this number. The rest of the money used ineffectively goes through David Price, 16 million, and it would be necessary to see what the management decides on the 16.5 million that Cody Bellinger represents.
Price was a necessary burden at the time to bring Mookie. He did not launch in 2020 and his 2021 has been far from the salary received. The dot on the i is the non-presence of a double digit salary player on the postseason roster.
But it is impossible for everyone to stay in the hills of Chavez Ravine. The safety pins, in my opinion, below.
Sportingly Corey Seager (more than 30 million estimated for the firm) has a lot to contribute. He is the leader or co-leader of the team in most of the STATCAST statistics. Second in XWOBA, .391 (measures the average taking into account the probability of success of a hit in consideration of the exit angle, exit speed and speed of the batter) and in XSLUG (expected sluggin according to the characteristics of the hit) with .523. These departments are led by Max Muncy with .405 and .572 respectively.
He’s also second in xBA, .292 to Trea Turner’s .296 (probability of a batted ball becoming a hit) and leads the WOBA (weighted on-base average) with .389 and in hitting percentage above the 95 mph output with 49.3%.
Then there is Chris Taylor (11 million estimated for the firm), in full sporting maturity, and who as a utility brings versatility and maneuverability to the lineup. Chris has also been productive and timely like almost any of the Dodgers players this season. In regular season, second behind Max Muncy in batting average with running backs and in the postseason the only one to produce in this situation against the Atlanta Braves.
To close the list of those who I believe can contribute a lot to the team in 2022 are Max Scherzer, Corey Knebel and Joe Kelly. Mad Max at 37 is like wine, at his best. Candidate for the Cy Young Award in the National League in the 2021 MLB season (it would be his fourth). Max still has a lot of fuel reserved in the tank.
Knebel could be filling the role of Kenley Jansen for a third of the price and just as effective. And Joe should extend his work to a couple of innings or alternate with Knebel and Treinen in the closings of the game, but his chip would have to decrease from the current 12 million so that added to Knebel they make a value sufficiently less than Jansen’s 20 million. .
Clayton, with a year to forget with repeated injuries and little chance to contribute in the second half of the tournament, seems not in a position to deserve a contract of the 30 million that he will be asking for. Nostalgia, feelings and honors aside.
Ultimately, Albert’s valuation will be purely financial and will be debated more in the finance department than in the baseball operations department.
In short, a winter break that will not have any rest. Busy for the top-hat magician, Andrew Friedman, but surely since he already has his fans accustomed to some luxury trick he will reserve for the final stretch.