The dire Premier League marks that may fall this season

While Manchester City, current leaders of the Premier League table, shows a level that could lead them to defend their title this season after breaking their own record of 100 points, in the basement of the table there are several dozen running danger of imposing some new marks.

There are six teams that made it to January without scoring 20 points: (ranging from 15th to 20th place) Everton, Leeds United, Watford, Burnley, Newcastle United and Norwich City. Although three of these clubs have not yet played half of their matches scheduled for the current season, there is a very certain possibility that at least one of them will impose a new record of fewer units required to avoid relegation from the Premier League.

The record for the fewest points required to survive was set by West Bromwich Albion in their 2004-05 “Great Escape” season, when the Baggies managed to stay on top with just a few minutes left in the season, scoring just 34 points. To put the above in context, that total would not have been enough to save a team from relegation in seven of the most recent 10 Premier League campaigns.

Likewise, the squad led by Bryan Robson was the first in the history of the Premier League to remain in the top flight after being at the bottom of the table for Christmas Day, eight points from remaining before the day of the Boxing Day 2004. Norwich spent Christmas in the basement of the table this season with 10 points, not adding any units since.

Following West Brom’s famous act of escapism, the financial disparity has grown between clubs that regularly finish at the top of the table and those that struggle to stay in the Premier year after year, leading to champions adding record numbers and those who fight to avoid the descent obtain less and less points.

Next, we analyze the situation of the six teams ranked last in the table for the current campaign, all of them within nine points of each other for the halfway point of the 2021-22 season.

Taking into account the results accumulated by the teams and the sum of points so far in the 2021-22 season, we have extrapolated said data to the rest of the campaign, in order to evaluate their chances of finishing the season avoiding breaking a good amount of “ worst ”all-time Premier League records. Most of these records, that is, belong to Derby County from the 2007-08 campaign and / or Sunderland from 2005-06.

Obviously, the above does not take into account the probability that some teams will improve their results as they make new signings, key figures are injured and the fight to avoid relegation intensifies, or the implications in the table of results between two teams. ranked among the six worst. However, it also serves to illustrate the gap that separates the dozen that occupy the bottom positions of the table.

Average points per game (PPP) in the 2021-22 Premier League season

Everton: 1.05

Leeds United: 1

Watford: 0.72

Burnley: 0.64 N

ewcastle: 0.57

Norwich: 0.52

Points earned in matches to play, based on current average PPP

Everton: 21 points (in 20 games)

Leeds: 19 (19)

Watford: 14.4 points (20)

Burnley: 13.44 (21)

Newcastle: 10.83 (19)

Norwich: 9.88 (19)

Final point count, based on PPP

15. Everton: 19 + 21 = 40 points

16. Leeds: 19 + 19 = 38

17. Watford: 13 + 14.4 = 27.4 (rounded up / down: 27)

———–

18. Burnley: 11 + 13.44 = 24.44 (44)

19. Newcastle: 11 + 10.83 = 21.83 (22)

20. Norwich: 10 + 9.88 = 19.88 (20)

If each of the six bottom clubs remains at the same level during the second half of the 2021-22 campaign, we could tentatively see Watford (current owner of 17th place) in danger of breaking West Brom’s old record for fewer points. required to save themselves from relegation in a Premier League season. The Hornets would need just 27 points to survive, which is an incredible seven points less than the Baggies required to stay in the first division in 2004-05, against all odds.

So there is a certain chance that West Brom’s record will be broken this season. However, there are also other “worst all-time records” currently in danger of breaking down in the Premier League.

Fewest points earned in a Premier League season: 11, Derby County (2007-08)

Despite the sad level shown by the teams that occupy the bottom of the table this season, the last three dozen (while they have the ghost of relegation breathing down their heads) have little chance of surpassing the historical mark of fewer units registered in a Premier League campaign. The particular “honor” belongs to the 2007-08 Derby County, which barely added 11 points in 38 matches played in that First Division tournament.

Norwich need to score just one point in their remaining 19 games to equal the Derby record and another to beat it. Using our extrapolated calculations, the Canaries appear poised to add up to almost double the units (20) achieved by the Rams during their infamous annus horribilis.

The Premier League record for most points won in a 38-game season for a side that still fell down belongs to West Ham United, which dropped to the Second Division despite accumulating a hefty 42 points in 2002-03. In that season’s table, it was likely that their point average would see them finish low in the middle of the table, close to Aston Villa (13) and Southampton (14).

Fewest wins in a Premier League season: 1, Derby County (2007-08)

Sotanero Norwich already has two wins this season, although both Burnley and Newcastle (with one win each) could match this mark if they fail to prevail in another match. Also, Burnley have two more games to get that second victory, after playing just 17 games so far this season.

Fewest home points in a season: 7, Sunderland (2005-06)

Everton: 13 points (in 9 games)

Leeds: 13 (10)

Watford: 7 (10)

Burnley: 7 (7)

Newcastle: 8 (10)

Norwich: 5 (10)

While Watford and Burnley are at least equal, Norwich are the only Premier League team left to match or exceed Sunderland’s terrible home record of 15 years ago. The Canaries are required to add at least two units in their remaining nine games to play at Carrow Road to ensure they don’t end up on the record books in an dishonorable way.

Fewest points on the road in a season: 3, Derby County (2007-08)

Everton: 6 points (9 games)

Leeds: 6 (9)

Watford: 6 (8)

Burnley: 4 (10)

Newcastle: 3 (9)

Norwich: 5 (9)

Although Burnley and Newcastle have not won a single away meeting so far in the 2021-22 tournament, it is the latter that also have not managed to draw enough draws to improve on the Derby’s unwanted all-time record. Eddie Howe’s team has eight trips pending this season, in which he must accumulate at least one more unit to rectify the situation.

The fact that the club’s last away win came eight months ago, specifically on the last day of the previous season against a Fulham that had already been relegated, is perhaps cause for some concern.

Most defeats in one season: 29, Ipswich Town (1994-95), Sunderland (2005-06), Derby County (2007-08), Sheffield United (2020-21)

Everton: 9 losses in 18 games (1 loss every 2 games, extrapolated total of 19)

Leeds: 8 in 19 (1 in 2.37, 16)

Watford: 13 in 18 (1 in 1.38, 27)

Burnley: 8 in 17 (1 in 2.15, 18)

Newcastle: 10 in 19 (1 in 1.9, 20)

Norwich: 13 in 19 (1 in 1.46, 26)

They may be outside the relegation zone at the moment, but Watford could be the closest to matching the record at their current level. The good news is that the Hornets would still be two losses behind the all-time high, even if they held onto their terrible 1-per-1.38-game loss average for the remainder of the season.

Fewer goals scored in one season: 20 goals in 38 games, Derby County (2007-08) and Sheffield United (2020-21)

Everton: 23 goals in 18 games (1 goal per 0.78 games, extrapolated total of 49)

Leeds: 21 goals in 19 games (1 for 0.9, 42)

Watford: 22 goals in 18 games (1 for 0.81, 47)

Burnley: 16 goals in 17 games (1 for 1.06, 34)

Newcastle: 19 goals in 19 games (1 for 1, 38)

Norwich: 8 goals in 19 games (1 for 2.37, 16)

The three teams at the bottom of the table are averaging less than one goal per game, with Norwich averaging one goal for every two games played. In fact, the situation is not looking good for the Canaries, who will need to dramatically increase their scoring production during the second half of the season if they wish to avoid including their name in the list of the least scoring teams in the Premier League. The club’s top scorer this season is Teemu pukki, with five goals in 18 games. However, the Finnish striker hasn’t scored since November, so the outlook doesn’t look promising on that specific front.

Most goals conceded in 38-game season: 89, Derby County (2007-08)

Everton: 32 goals in 18 games (1.77 goals conceded per game, extrapolated total of 67)

Leeds: 37 in 19 (1.94 goals per game, 74)

Watford: 36 in 18 (2 goals per game, 76)

Burnley: 27 for 17 (1.58 goals per game, 60)

Newcastle: 42 for 19 (2.21 goals per game, 84)

Norwich: 42 out of 19 (2.21 goals per game, 84)

All of these teams concede goals everywhere, but none of the defenses belonging to the bottom of the Premier League are as mediocre as the almost totally permeable back of the Derby in 2007-08, that obtained the disgraceful all-time record.

Worst goal difference in a season: -69, Derby County (2007-08)

Norwich have the worst goal difference so far this season in the Premier League by a wide margin, at -34 after having played exactly half of their matches.

Despite having doubled their goal difference to account for the second half of the season, the Canaries would finish with a goal difference of -64. While that is very close, it is enough to ensure that the infamous 2007-08 vintage Derby roster will maintain its gruesome all-time record for at least one more season.