When will the 2022 Draft quarterbacks make their starting debuts?

NFL Nation reporters break down each of the top quarterbacks selected in the past college draft for their chances of becoming a starter in 2022

A year after five quarterbacks were drafted in the top 15 picks in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draftonly one was selected among the first 73 shifts of the Draft 2022 last April. Another three were chosen before the end of the third round, and only two more heard their names before the seventh round. Certainly, it was a down year for the quarterback position, but that’s not to say we won’t see some rookies starting under center at some point in the 2022 regular season.

So when will we see some of the young quarterbacks debut? Could the first round recruit, Kenny Pickettoutperform Mitch Trubisky from the start by the ownership of the Steelers? Will be able Desmond Ridder in Atlanta either Matt Corral of Carolina compete for its rebuilding franchises? how long will you have to wait Malik Willis in back of Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee?

Our reporters from NFL Nation broke it all down, offering odds on each of them starting in Week 1, or sitting out the entire season, before offering their predictions for when each of the rookie quarterbacks might enjoy their first start of the season. NFL. Plus, we’ll take a look at the quarterbacks’ roles picked later by New England Y Washington. But we start at pittsburgh.

Recruited: Round 1, No. 20
Ownership Competition: Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolf

Probability of earning the starting job for Week 1: 2 percent. Throughout OTAs and minicamp, Pickett consistently received reps with the third team, behind Trubisky and Rudolph. In order to supplant Trubisky as the Week 1 starter, Pickett would have to become the reincarnation of Johnny Unitas as soon as he starts training camp. That’s not going to happen. And that’s fine, the Steelers don’t need to rush Pickett’s development.

Trubisky has seemed comfortable and confident throughout the offseason sessions, and his quick rapport with the rest of the locker room signals that he will be a leader for this team. Add in the fact that the Steelers open on the road against the reigning AFC champion Bengals, and Trubisky is even more likely to start.

Probabilities of remaining benched all year: 40 percent. The Steelers have to believe that Pickett is the future of this organization. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have taken it in the first round. But, that does not necessarily mean that it is about the immediate future. If the Steelers navigate the series of first-season challenges that includes games in Cincinnati and Cleveland, along with home games against Tampa Bay and New England, and Trubisky isn’t losing those games, then they should stick with him.

If the Steelers can field a strong defense and an improved offensive line to help the running back Najee Harris, so they just need a stable quarterback who doesn’t make big mistakes. Assuming Trubisky has really matured and learned a lot in Buffalo behind Josh Allenit will be him

Prediction for his first NFL start: Week 18 vs. Cleveland Browns. Truth be told, I have two games marked as possible NFL starting debuts for Pickett. The first is Week 10 against the Saints after the rest day. If Trubisky isn’t delivering, the bye gives the Steelers a natural pause to make a change at starting quarterback. But if Trubisky is playing well, there’s no reason to make the trade now.

The second — and more likely — date is Week 18. Even in years when the Steelers weren’t supposed to be in the playoff conversation, they’ve had some remote chance of staying in contention down the stretch. This season could be the same, and as long as Trubisky isn’t losing games for the team, it makes sense to stick with him. But, if Week 18 turns into a game of formality with nothing on the line except bragging rights, then the Steelers could give Pickett a taste of a rivalry game within the AFC North. –Brooke Pryor

Recruited: Round 3, No. 74
Ownership Competition: Marcus Mariota

Probability of earning the starting job for Week 1: 5 percent. Mariota appears to be way ahead of Ridder for now, and Atlanta signed Mariota for one reason: to be the starter at least in the short term because of his familiarity with what coach Arthur Smith wants in the offense. Additionally, Mariota has looked sharp throughout the team’s organized activities. So why 5 percent? There’s always a chance of injury, and it’s always possible for Ridder to make a big jump once he starts training camp. Atlanta likes what it’s seen from Ridder so far, but a Week 1 debut seems like too much to ask.

Probabilities of remaining benched all year: 20 percent. The reality is, if Mariota plays well and the Falcons are still mathematically alive in the postseason race, he’ll still be the quarterback. Ridder’s paths to the starting job at this point include:

• Mariota has a hard time as a starter.

• The Falcons are eliminated from the playoff race and decide they need to see what they have in Ridder.

• Mariota is injured.

Most likely? Ridder will see some action as the season progresses, but how and when that happens will depend on how Mariota is playing, and how Ridder is progressing.

Prediction for his first NFL start: Week 15 at New Orleans Saints. The Falcons have a late bye date, and they should know by then if they’re still in the playoff race. If they are, Mariota will likely remain the starter. If not, it would be a good time to make the trade — unless Mariota is playing really well — because he would give Ridder an extra week to prepare and four games of action. That would give Atlanta a reasonable sample to judge what he would need to do at quarterback heading into the 2023 season.

If things pan out for Mariota, Week 11 against Chicago will be another moment to watch, because the Falcons would be coming out of a Thursday night game in Week 10, again, providing the rookie with a little extra time to prepare for the headline change. –Michael Rothstein

Recruited: Round 3, No. 86
Ownership Competition: Ryan Tannehill

Probability of earning the starting job for Week 1: 5 percent. Barring injury or some kind of catastrophic failure, Tannehill will get the most snaps this season. The Titans have taken a patient stance in developing Willis, beginning with getting him more used to calling plays since the previous meeting and working from center. Quarterbacks coach Pat O’Hara has also worked extensively with Willis to make adjustments to his mechanics and improve his accuracy. The coaching group loves what they’re already seeing in Willis, but it’s a work in progress.

Probabilities of remaining benched all year: 75 percent. The Titans remain in “win now” mode despite recruiting who they feel is their quarterback of the future. Tannehill has started every game since taking over the job in Week 6 of the 2019 campaign. He will likely enjoy a bounce-back season from last year, and remain the starter through 2022.

Prediction for his first NFL start: Week 15 of the 2023 season. Tannehill’s contract carries a $9.2 million dead-money charge after the 2023 season. The Titans will need to see what they have in Willis before making a decision to move forward without Tannehill. If Tennessee isn’t in the running for a playoff spot, then it’s the perfect time to give Willis a chance to show what he can do in real games. — Davenport Nougat

Recruited: Round 3, No. 94
Ownership Competition: Sam Darnold, PJ Walker

Probability of earning the starting job for Week 1: 5 percent. That might be an exaggeration, after offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo spoke at length about how Corral is having to learn an entirely different language, and how it’s going to take time, and how it won’t be easy. McAdoo also said he’ll be tough on Corral, so the former Ole Miss star can be ready when the time comes. That moment probably won’t be Week 1, unless Corral makes a huge leap in training camp.

The plan is to have a veteran — be it Darnold, Baker Mayfield or someone else– starting the campaign, and having Corral ready to take over if that veteran doesn’t deliver.

Probabilities of remaining benched all year: 0 percent. Darnold hasn’t shown he can win in four pro seasons, so there’s no reason to assume that will change this season. Darnold could be benched early if he doesn’t respond, opening the door for Corral. The team loves the energy the rookie brings, and the more time McAdoo spends with him, the more they like what he brings.

Prediction for his first NFL start: Week 6 at the Los Angeles Rams. The first part of the schedule is tough, and five games is enough time to see if Darnold, or another veteran, can win. While starting Corral against the defending Super Bowl champions on the road may seem tough, the stakes for him to win would be low, and that would ease the pressure. Plus, his mobility against the Rams’ defensive front could help. — David Newton

What role will mid-round quarterbacks play in 2022?

Bailey ZappeNew England Patriots (Round 4, No. 137): Zappe will likely be the third quarterback on the Pats’ roster order. mac jones he’s locked in as No. 1, so the only question is whether Zappe can challenge the veteran Brian Hoyer for the No. 2 role. That seems unlikely at this point, but back in 2009, Hoyer was regarded the same way when he competed against Kevin O’Connell before winning the job. –Mike Reiss

Sam HowellWashington Commanders (Round 5, No. 144): Howell will be the third quarterback in order for Washington. Commanders will start with Carson Wentz and consider Taylor Heinicke a first line substitute. But, with Heinicke in the final year of his contract, Howell has a shot at becoming the primary backup by 2023. Also, keep in mind that Washington hasn’t had a quarterback start all of its games since Kirk Cousins did so in the 2017 season, and they’ve had to employ at least three starters in every year since. –John Keim