Here are six steps to help bettors analyze their NFL game totals betting
Mexico.- Online sports betting is growing in popularity, in part due to the greater and easier access to legal sports betting that is spreading throughout the region, such as those on the matches of the NFLThanks to sites like Codere and other current operators.
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All markets, especially bets dand “over/under” do not imply the overall winner of a match. But if the total number of points that both teams score is greater or less than a number established by the book.
you need to know some key offensive and defensive stats to make an informed NFL game totals bet. But you also need to understand some deep trends that exist in the sport regarding scoring, and some factors that go into setting the lines that can influence your bet.
This post shares six steps to help bettors analyze their bets of professional football game totals.
Step 1. Understand the key NFL numbers
It’s important to know How many points do NFL teams score on average? if you want to successfully parse a line of match totals. The key NFL numbers give us a lot of information on how to bet on the NFL over/under.
Alone 4% of NFL games end with a total of 41 points. Since the next most common result is 40 points (at 3.75%), it’s probably best to say that a total of between 40 and 42 points is the most common match total. Nearly 10% of all NFL games end in that point range.
If we go back to the 2015 season, the totals less common were 60-61 points (only 1.87% of all NFL games) and 56-59 points (only 2.5% of all games). Interestingly, a low point total (31) is among the least common, accounting for just 1.2% of all final results.
Comparing a bookmaker’s match total to these important league averages can help you spread value bets of which it is better to leave the betting public.
Step 2. Consider the context of the match
Context is the most important when considering an NFL game totals bet. You can’t approach a playoff game the same way you would bet on a non-division regular season game.
things like the field advantage, weather and betting they affect how bet makers set lines, how the public bets and how teams play on the field.
Step 3. Create an image of each attack
Ask yourself: “What does this offense have to do to get a lot of points?”. Then ask yourself if the party presents those conditions or not.
Looking at the answers to these questions on both sides of the ball can help you make a informed bet on match totals. If I’m considering a game involving Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, I know that right now his main weapon is Rodgers-Adams.
It is an offensive couple powerful enough that it can make numbers without much support from the rest of the offense.
If either of the two athletes in that pairing (Aaron Rodgers or Davante Adams) is inhibited in any way, I know that limits the Packers’ potential to put up big numbers. Go back to Week 1 of the 2021 season, when the Packers scored 3 points against the Saints, to see a perfect example of this.
Whenever you can hold Rodgers to 133 yards on 28 passes with two INTs, you’re going to get a lower result.
Take away Rodgers’ O-line and he’s as vulnerable as any starting QB in the league. By the way, Rodgers only threw two more INTs all season, to give you an idea of how strange the result was. Bettors who knew the impact of David Bakhtiari’s loss were not at all surprised.
Step 4. Look at the plus/minus trends
Watch the trends recent game totals for both teams. Putting those two trends together creates a powerful option for predicting total match performance when they meet.
Considers how have a team’s totals been recently. Have they had a lot of over or under results in their last half dozen games? Is there any reason to think that this trend will not continue? Perhaps an injury or roster change, or the presence of a dynamic player on the opposing team, has changed the team’s odds a bit.
Step 5. Give importance to the results of the series and the last time out
In the NFL, every possible matchup they occur at least once every four years. When it comes to teams from your own conference, you see them at least once every three years.
That means every team has played every other team fairly recently. This gives a lot of weight to recent performances when it comes to analyzing a possible outcome of the match totals.
The results of the series and the Last Time Out they carry more weight in games involving division rivals, as teams from the same division play each other twice each regular season. Still, you can usually factor in Last Time Out and Series results during the postseason or against less common opponents, as long as the history is recent enough to be meaningful.
You can find your own microtrends in this line. In the 2021-2022 season, playoff teams coming off a bye week produced results well below their averages, leading to many under-finishes. Looking for and taking advantage of trends like that means paying attention to things like last timeout performance when looking at NFL game totals.
Step 6. Consider the value of the line itself
When two unpopular teams with losing records meet, the match totals they no longer represent reality. This is not the only situation of this kind. When two popular teams with winning records meet, the match totals are equally absurd. Why is this happening?
The bet makers they do not establish their numbers based on real mathematical probabilities. A big part of how the lines are set has to do with manipulating the numbers to circulate bettors’ funds and balance the book.
In the case of two popular teams with winning records, bettors often raise the match total, knowing that the betting public will always back the winners and bet on the excesses. When two small-market teams that haven’t had much success recently play each other, the opposite effect occurs, with game totals often deflate to attract more bets.
You can’t just look at the two teams playing on the field when analyzing an NFL game totals bet. You also have to consider if there is value in the line as it is presented on your favorite NFL betting site. Your best strategy to avoid inflated or deflated lines is to set your own match total and only bet when you find a valuable difference between your total and the available line.
Match totals betting is one of the easiest bets in sports betting, but it’s still a mystery to many football bettors who could take advantage of their experience and knowledge to achieve a successful betting strategy.
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Six Steps to Analyze NFL Game Totals