Welcome to NFL Week 7 Betting Trends, featured by Instabet. You know that I like to start with a little reflection and we go with this: Despite the fact that the standard odds in the NFL are -110 / 1.91, it is always possible to access lower payouts, but in theory they have a higher probability of winning. For example a favorite in moneyline pay us -250 / 1.40.
Never fall into the trap. Betting this way is not profitable in the long run.
Let me explain: if we only play games at the classic rate, we need a 52.4% effectiveness to “draw”. As we start to bet on more expensive odds, we will have to drastically increase the percentage of hits we need to guarantee a profit.
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After the lesson of the day, let’s go to the most popular teams of the week among the betting public. These are the NFL betting trends for week 7 of this season:
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
79% of bets are with Patriots -7
I never like to match up with the hottest team each week, but the reality is, the Jets have absolutely not shown this season, especially on offense, where they are last place based on advanced DVOA stats.
To make matters worse, Bill Belichick has an excellent resume facing rookie quarterbacks, and with the Patriots one even better when he plays after a loss.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
75% of bets are on Panthers -3
Carolina is obviously not as good as her 3-0 start led us to think. The question is whether the Panthers are as bad as they have shown in their last three losses.
Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are not playing for the Giants, so it could be a very long day for an offense that is already ranked as one of the 6 worst in the league.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams
65% of bets are with Rams -15
Jared Goff’s revenge game. On principle, I can’t endorse a favorite with more than two touchdowns in an NFL game, but this Rams offense is spectacular: sThey are third in DVOA, third in net yards per play and have one of the best passing attacks in the league. Meanwhile, the Lions have the seventh worst defense in the NFL.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
63% of bets are on Texans +17.5
It is not a finger error, indeed the betting public is aligned with the Texans. This despite Houston coming off its worst loss of the season.
Obviously Arizona is the best team, but this is a terrible time on their schedule. Finally they are the # 1 universal in all power rankings (including ours, of course) and are coming off a couple of big wins against the 49ers and the Browns. They now have an on-going game against the worst team in the league before hosting Green Bay in a short week.
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
59% of the bets are with Bucs -12.5
I do not understand why people want to bet on these games with such bulky lines, it is very difficult to find reasons to endorse a favorite or underdog. That being said, the only thing Chicago can do on offense is run the ball and this week it faces a Bucs who are the fifth-best unit against the run. Whoops!
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These are the NFL 2021 Week 7 betting trends, presented by Instabet. We await your comments.
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These are the NFL 2021 Week 5 betting trends, presented by Instabet. We await your comments.
| Don’t miss our betting section for this week: |
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| Betting Odds Week 7 |
| Betting Tips Week 7 |
| Winning Bet Week 7 |
| Betting Trends Week 7 |
| Injury Report Week 7 |