Have you heard the concept of trap line? In short, it refers to those bet lines that seem too good to be true. When we see a popular team facing an inferior rival and only having to win by a few points to cover their bet.
Make no mistake, casinos are never wrong. When we see a good team, which is receiving a lot of bets from the public endorsing an easy number, and also the line practically does not move … run and tell whoever you trust the most.
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These are the NFL betting trends for week 6 of this season:
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens
87% of bets are on Chargers +3
We have a 4-1 matchup between teams, but the market has mixed opinions about them. The public is in love with the Chargers, but hates “running back” Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
Justin Herbert is a spectacular QB, but this offense cannot sustain the success it is having on third and fourth down chances. Without going any further, Los Angeles has converted 8 of the 9 times it has been played into fourth. The exeption? A failed surprise move attempt.
The Chargers defense is the second worst in the NFL to stop the run according to their DVOA and I can’t think of a better offense to run the ball and dominate the game.
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
80% of the bets are with Bills -5.5
Buffalo is the best team in the NFL and is taking 80% of the bets, but the line goes down from 6 to 5.5? Hmm, that smells bad.
Clearly the Bills are the best team, but they are coming off an emotional victory against Kansas City, in which they finally managed to conquer their ghosts and beat Mahomes and company.
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
79% of the bets are with Cowboys -4
Dallas is the only undefeated team against him spread after five weeks, and that’s causing the market to inflate a line a bit that should be closer to 2.5 or 3.
I leave you some statistics of Bill Belichick against him spread: 28-13-2 as an underdog, 15-4 as a local underdog and 51-23-3 playing in October.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Football Team
78% of the bets are with Saints -2.5
Despite the loss to the Bills and having one of the worst defenses in the league, the Chiefs are still one of the top ten teams in the NFL and should have no problem beating a Washington Football Team that got us thinking. that he had a good defense, but that every week he looks more overrated.
Key stat: The WFT’s pass defense is the NFL’s fourth worst in DVOA. It’s a recipe for disaster against Patrick Mahomes.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
77% of the bets are with Packers -4.5
Chicago’s key to staying in the game is putting pressure on Aaron Rodgers. When the Green Bay QB has a clean bag of protection, he has added 10 touchdowns, 1 interception and 81% completions. When the opponent manages to pressure him, his statistics drop to 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and 47% of completions.
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These are the NFL 2021 Week 5 betting trends, presented by Instabet. We await your comments.