NFL Betting Trends Week 11 – Season 2021

Last week the Buccaneers, Titans and Rams were three of the highest-bet teams and attracted 65% or more of the tickets. Unfortunately for the supporting public, neither of them covered the line and two of them lost their game.

We have 3 consecutive weeks in which a favorite of more than 10 points loses his match. Are the surprises over? Let’s find out as we review the most popular teams among punters for week 11.

Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears

77% of bets are on Ravens -4.5

Harbaugh has always been an excellent coach with extra preparation time so there is some advantage for Baltimore. However, the Ravens defense is 25th in DVOA so I’m not dying to endorse them as more than one field goal favorites either.

It’s extremely rare for an NFL game to be defined by 5 or 6 points, so if you take this line you have to feel comfortable that Baltimore will win by at least one touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

73% of bets are with 49ers -6

Whoa, whoa. Last week 90% of the people took out San Francisco in the Monday Night Football game and the 49ers responded by dominating the Rams 31-10. Now people are rushing to back Shanahan’s team even though the head coach has a terrible record as a favorite against the spread.

San Francisco wins, but does not cover the line.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

69% of bets are with Dolphins -3.5

Mike White’s dream of leading the Jets offense is over. Zach Wilson is not ready to return, so it has already been announced that Joe Flacco will be the starting QB for New York. I believe Miami is still one of the worst teams in the NFL and I have no interest in endorsing them as the road favorite of more than one FG in a divisional game.

Translation: Run from this game and tell whoever you trust most.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

68% of bets are with Packers -1.5

The Packers are 9-1 against the spread so they have become one of the most popular teams among bettors, yet injuries to Green Bay’s defense keep piling up: Alexander, Smith, Mercilus and Gary there are already 4 headlines that are not available.

Typical reverse movement of the line, why if 68% of the bets are with Packers, the line dropped from 2.5 to 1.5?

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers

67% of bets are with Chargers -5.5

Are you seriously concerned about the absence of Ben Roethlisberger? The veteran QB is already so understated that he doesn’t really have value for the line, what’s more, I prefer Rudolph under the controls.

These are actually two very even teams. Chargers are 16 in DVOA, while Pittsburgh is 19. Mike Tomlin is 71% effective against the spread as an underdog, so I gladly take it with pleasure.

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NFL Betting Trends Week 11 – Season 2021