From the Shotgun Formation: The Triumph of Analytics – Week 11 2021 NFL Season

Washington beat Tampa Bay and the analytics dictated that an extra point was not necessary, a sign that the NFL is changing at the rate of probability and statistics … we talked about this and other things from the Shotgun Formation.

The triumph of analytics

Tampa Bay came within four points of Washington with about eleven minutes left in the game. At that time Taylor Heinicke developed an offensive series that consumed about ten and a half minutes and ended with a touchdown by Antonio Gibson. With the score 29-19 the extra point followed and Ron Rivera decided he didn’t want it. That was so clear that it sent Washington to the ground on the two-point attempt.

The reason for that decision? As Rivera explained, the team’s analytics expert told him that it was best not to try to score that extra point because there was a possibility that he would be blocked. If the kick was blocked and returned for score by the Buccaneers, then they would receive two points and the game would be one possession.

Yes, it sounds like something that is not very likely to happen, but the analytics department is in charge of indicating which play is the one that ensures the highest percentage of success. Kicking the extra point and risking the block was a worse play than putting a knee on the ground because it guaranteed both possessions advantage 100 percent of the time. The difference between one option and the other was probably one percentage point, but Rivera decided to play with the better of the two options, no matter how close they were.

This is perhaps the best example of the triumph of analytics in the NFL. Ron Rivera literally avoided scoring an extra point because the odds told him of a scenario where instead of scoring that point they scored two. Obviously it is something you can do when you are leading by ten with half a minute to play, but it is still strange that a head coach decides to give up an “automatic” point just because there is a small probability that they will block the kick.

Some coaches are still reluctant to follow analytics and talk about using their instincts more when deciding what to do, but it is increasingly common for the percentage of probability of winning to be considered above what the personal experience of the coach suggests.

Quick impressions from Week 10

This week was full of surprises, striking results and many things to comment on. Here I share some of the ones that caught my attention the most:

1. Follow the trend. This year has been characterized as the one of the rebellion of the underdog, and this week it returned to present this to us. Washington defeated Tampa Bay, the Panthers did the same against Arizona, Miami took advantage of the Ravens’ overconfidence and Minnesota gave another setback to the Chargers. Each game had its own characteristics and there is much to say about each one, but something is evident at this time: the phrase “On any given sunday” it never made more sense in the NFL.

2. Something is something. The Lions didn’t lose this week, and that’s a good thing. Unfortunately for them they did not win either. In an extremely strange game with the worst overtime in memory, the Lions and Steelers tied at 16 points for the Lions to go 0-8-1 in the 2021 NFL Season. Now, the most interesting thing about this game is that Detroit really let go of the win, because in the game they were closer to taking it than Pittsburgh, and that’s the most striking thing about all this.

3. Patrick Mahomes is back. Or at least we will hear that all week. After the big game he had against the Raiders on Sunday night it’s normal to talk about Mahomes’ return, and I think yes, he did, but it was just a return to his usual style of decision-making. In this match he released the ball faster and cared less about trying to win the match on every pass. Interestingly, his passes were more lethal now and the Chiefs looked like the team they are supposed to be.

The things that I think I know

After what happened in the 10th week of the 2021 NFL Season, here are some things I think I know:

1. For each other. Cam Newton’s return to Carolina is the best example of how a player can be a great element on one roster and a less useful one on another. After his unspectacular stint with New England, Newton helped the Panthers defeat Arizona (who played without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins). This should be the last stop in Newton’s career, and it will be the sign that there are relationships that are better not to break.

2. Now I am sure. A couple of weeks ago I spoke in this column about how crazy the AFC was and today I confirm it. Bills and Patriots are separated by half a game in the AFC East, the north is a race where any one of the four can take it and the difference between first and last place in the AFC West is one game. And don’t forget that the Colts (5-5) are alive in the postseason race. There are at least twelve teams with viable postseason aspirations, and that will give a very striking season finale to this conference.

3. I don’t even want to think. The top three places in the past Power Rankings were the Cardinals, Titans and Buccaneers. I know the Titans should be in first place, but other than that I am not very clear about that. Obviously the Rams game will help define things better.

Thinking about the MNF

To avoid another surprise. The Rams come from being surprised by the Titans the previous week and the trend continues to point in favor of surprises, so they have to avoid being one more in the statistics. For the 49ers, for their part, things continue to look bad for the year. A loss would tie them with Seattle at 3-6 and three and a half games out of the division’s top spot. This is the day the Rams must officially drop the NFC West race in two contenders.

The logic is that the Rams should easily win this game, although we already know that this is not happening very often in the NFL. Anyway I go with Sean McVay and company by score of 31-14.

the song of the week

This week Cam Newton returned to Carolina and Patrick Mahomes returned to his normal form. So it makes sense to think of this song and its classic “Guess who’s back, back again?”

Talking about college football

Every week there are many things to talk about college football, so we open a space to do that. Let’s see what was the most striking thing about this day in the NCAA:

1. With a perfect step. This is, without a doubt, the year of Georgia. The Bulldogs (10-0, 8-0 in the SEC) maintain their dominant pace of the season and now subdued Tennessee (5-5, 3-4 in the SEC), an extremely fast team that can boast that they once had 7-0 lead at the start of the game, marking the biggest difference the Bulldogs have faced this season. The problem is that after that came a game where Georgia was establishing conditions and they ended up winning 41-17. Looks like the Bulldogs’ ticket to the College Football Playoff is stamped.

2. Stumble for the Sooners. Oklahoma entered this week 9-0 and needed a major victory to make its case before the CFP Committee. The problem is that Baylor was not willing to cooperate and they ended up beating the Sooners 27-14 to go 7-2 and improve their position in the rankings in the process. Baylor just dominated with the running game, adding 296 yards that way and his defense put in a great performance, leaving Oklahoma’s offense at 260 total yards.

3. For the story. In the history of the Kansas-Texas rivalry the Jayhawks had never won at Austin, posting a historic 0-9 mark. As if that weren’t enough, they had a 56-loss streak on the road to teams from the Big 12. This week they entered the game as a clear underdog, as the bookmakers gave the Longhorns a 31-point lead. All of this made Kansas ’57-56 victory even more surprising, a victory that also extends Texas’ losing streak to five.

Talking about ONEFA

This week ONEFA had interesting matches, but there are two where it is worth taking a moment and talking a little about them:

1. White domain. The White Burros of the IPN continue with a good moment and defeated the Pumas CU 21-14, a team that is in the process of being renewed with a large number of rookies. This result keeps the Burros Blancos on track and consolidates them as a very strong team in ONEFA, and it will be extremely interesting to see them in the coming weeks when they have to face the Tecs, teams with whom they have a good time of not playing well. official. The closest is on December 11 against the Borregos Toluca.

2. They are playing well here. This year the Pumas Acatlán have done a great job to establish their “brand”, and now under the concept of “La Banda de Acatlán” they are seen as a very interesting program. That fine image work had exceptional support this week with a solid 31-23 win over Borregos CEM. I hope that this result will be the basis for those from Here to continue growing as a program.

The data of the week

In the game against Washington, Tom Brady threw two interceptions in the first quarter. That is something extremely strange. Quite a bit, according to this data:

Oklahoma Fall Video of the Week

The Sooners saw their playoff aspirations derailed this week. And interestingly there is a representation of that on video:

The “Business decision” video of the week

Teddy Bridgewater is the best example of when a player decides that it is not worth risking injury even if it means letting the opposing defender pass.

The tie video of the week

Steelers and Lions tied and Pittsburgh’s last offensive play in the game was a reflection of their performance:

Here we end this installment of this column. You already know that you can leave me here below this article in the comments or on my Twitter account your suggestions for topics to be covered From the Shotgun Formation. You can also share videos that you think should appear in one of the weekly sections.

We would love to give thanks to the writer of this post for this remarkable web content

From the Shotgun Formation: The Triumph of Analytics – Week 11 2021 NFL Season