Yankees in search of a miracle in 2021

We already know that the Yankees are not doing well. The season is going to be disastrous in many of the playing areas. The Bombers seem like a ship without a helmsman and at this point in the season, fans are beginning to think that only a miracle saves the 2021 contest.

But based on numbers, what level of miracle are we talking about?

Statistically, the Yankees have after Sunday’s doubleheader where they split with the Mets, a percentage chance of reaching the postseason of only 39%, according to the FanGraphs site. Their arch rivals, the Boston Red Sox, have 91.8%, followed by the Rays at 50.7% and even the Blue Jays have a better chance at 44.5%.

Less than 50% for the Bronx. Not very flattering news for the top winners of the Fall Classics. This is not everything. The chances of winning his division right now are 8%, while that of winning the 28th title in franchise history is reduced to 4.7%.

So if we’re going to be a miracle, the Yankees would need to win at least 50 or more of the remaining 79 games. However, FanGraphs projections calculate them at a balance of 45-34 for the rest of the year, leaving them at the end with a mark of 87-75.

What can help in this process so that they sneak into the October party?

A relegation or a debacle of other teams involved in the fight. In other words, the Yankees’ poor record with their division rivals (17-24, only beaten by the Orioles at 10-23), has put them in a position where no matter how well they play the rest of the contest , they do not have full control of their destiny, as some of the teams depend on them in the standings, they have a very bad second half. You can pass? Of course, we have seen that on other occasions.

By the way, another data of the Yankees with respect to the other teams of the East Division of the American League, is the differential of races. The Bombers show a -11 in that department, while Boston (+63), Rays (+66) and Toronto (+73) are all positive.

Baseball is a sport of miracles, incredible stories, and phenomenal comebacks. Not all is lost and less with a team with the mystique of the Bronx Bombers, but at least the math is against them.

.