Well moved the pitching market

The pitching market is moving at a dizzying pace this offseason start, with four free agents already signed and another starter securing a juicy extension.

The Venezuelan Eduardo Rodriguez, Justin Verlander (according to sources), Noah syndergaard and Andrew Heaney They all reached settlements for a combined US $ 131.5 million, with Rodríguez’s US $ 77 million contributing more than half of that sum. Both Syndergaard and Verlander reached one-year deals worth more than $ 20 million, while Heaney landed a $ 8.5 million deal despite a poor performance in 2021. Verlander’s deal has not been confirmed by the club.

“I think one of the main drivers of all this is recognizing that it will be very difficult for teams and agents to achieve all their offseason goals if they wait for a new agreement (of the Collective Contract, or CBA),” said a manager of a National League team. “If there is a work stoppage, most of what would be left to do in the winter would be reduced to a few weeks together before the potential start of training. That scenario would be difficult for everyone: the players, agents and team managers ”.

The CBA between players and teams will expire on December 1st.

Rodriguez signed a five-year contract to join the Tigers, thus igniting the market by joining a rising team. Rodriguez’s 4.74 ERA was the worst of his career, but his peripheral numbers – his career-best strikeout rate (10.6) and a 3.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio, plus a 3.32 FIP – make it clear that his season was better than his earned run average indicates.

Syndergaard, who has pitched two innings in the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery, struck a deal with the Angels for one year and $ 21 million, securing $ 2.6 million more than he would have made if he had accepted the qualifying offer from the Mets.

Verlander pitched six innings in 2020 before a Tommy John ended his campaign, and he hasn’t pitched since. Like Syndergaard, he turned down the Astros’ qualifying offer, though wasted no time returning to Houston, agreeing to a one-year, $ 25 million deal (according to sources), with a player option of $ 25 million by 2023, effectively converting the contract. in one of two years and US $ 50 million.

Even Heaney, who had a 5.83 ERA in 30 games (23 starts) with the Angels and Yankees, was able to secure a one-year, $ 8.5 million deal with the Dodgers, a sign that teams remain focused on finding that next big thing. candidate to rebound.

Free agency hasn’t been the only way to spend, however. The Blue Jays reached an agreement to extend the contract of Puerto Rican law firm José Berríos for seven years and US $ 131 million, avoiding the arbitration process in his last year of eligibility and ensuring his salary until 2028.

The number of dollars being delivered is not as surprising as when it is being delivered. In November of last year, only five free agents signed contracts of at least $ 1 million, all for one year. The three most notable were Robbie Ray, Drew Smyly ($ 11 million) and Charlie Morton ($ 15 million), the last two being with the Braves.

Last year, the first contract worth more than $ 20 million was not signed until Dec. 15, when James McCann and the Mets agreed to a four-year, $ 40.6 million contract. The four-year, $ 28 million deal between Ha-Seong Kim and the Padres was the only other for more than $ 20 million before the end of 2020.

“I think there are some teams and some players who are willing to take that step if the right contract appears,” said another executive from the Nacional. “So they don’t have any more stress the rest of the winter. The lack of certainty does not sit well with everyone. I guess we’ll see a few more (signatures) and then it will slow down, before maybe going back up a day or two before the CBA expires. And then who knows?

It wasn’t until January 27, 2021, that a player signed a contract equal to or more in value than Rodriguez’s with Detroit. That day, the Yankees signed DJ LeMahieu for six years and $ 90 million.

Of the 14 contracts that were awarded last winter for at least $ 20 million in guaranteed money, 12 were signed between January 19 and March 8. This time around, we’ve already seen three such signings during the first two weeks of free agency, a trend that could continue until the current CBA expires on Dec. 1.

“Because of that date, there is no reason for players to take things too easy in an unpredictable market,” added a manager for an American League team. “In a way, I think some players decided to act like November was the middle of January in a normal year. It is time to sign and focus on where you are going to be when spring comes. “

That Syndergaard and Verlander secured $ 46 million between the two after practically not pitching in the past two years shows that there are teams willing to take risky bets when it comes to pitching.

Heaney was uninjured, but managed to sign a guaranteed deal despite a lackluster season. His 26.9% strikeout rate was in line with the rest of his career, in addition to ranking among the league’s top 10% in fastball rotation and swing rate to pitches outside the strike zone, signs that it is. better pitcher than we saw in 2021.

Several teams believed in Heaney’s potential, as evidenced by the fact that more than a dozen ninths tried to sign him before he ended up with the Dodgers.

Will Heaney be the next Ray? Last year, Ray entered free agency after a terrible season in which he had a 6.62 ERA with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays. Despite poor results, Ray ranked in the league’s top 20% for fastball rotation and missed swing percentage, prompting Toronto to retain him for a year and $ 8 million. The left-hander rewarded them with a stellar 2021 in which he won the American League Cy Young Award.

“That didn’t surprise me much,” said the NL’s second manager of Heaney’s contract. “The vast majority of teams are no longer making decisions based on traditional statistics, so the notion of getting paid for what your peripheral numbers say is quite common.”