NL West: Two question marks, by club

Just days before the start of the regular season, it’s time to start doing the division previews. While we’re clear that there are certainly some moves left to be made–such as trading AJ Pollock for Craig Kimbrel–at this point we have a pretty good idea of ​​what each team will look like.

Today: National League West Division

Future generations may look at the 2021 NL West standings and say, “How the hell did that happen?” Well, future generations, know that even when all that was happening, we were all here thinking the same thing: How is this happening?

For those who missed it — there’s so much going on! – the Dodgers won 106 games last year…and finished second! Behind a team whose best player was a 34-year-old shortstop who hit .228 in his last full season before that. Behind a team whose most optimistic fans believed they would be lucky if they won 85 games. Behind a team whose eight best hitters were over 30 years old. It was really crazy!

That team is a year older and the D-backs are still in transition. And the Dodgers look even better and the Padres are going to play several months without their star and nobody knows what’s going on with the Rockies. This was the most surprising division in the Major Leagues last year. But you feel like, in 2022, this is still Dodger Country.

Let’s review each team. They are listed alphabetically and my prediction for how they will end is at the bottom.

1. Will this year be different?

The D-backs lost 110 games last year, a frightening number of losses, and only one fewer than their infamous 2004 season. What have they done in response to that? They brought in Jordan Luplow, Zach Davies, Mark Melancon and Mexican Óliver Pérez. That’s probably not going to move the needle significantly, though weirder things have happened. They will have a better year than 2021, even if it’s just by accident. But yes, the roster is not very different.

2. Will we ever see the real Madison Bumgarner again?

Remember how the D-backs were willing to give him many more years on his contract than the Giants, or really any other team, to secure the one-time World Series MVP? Well, there are only two years left in that theoretical future, if they buy out the remaining $14 million on his contract after the 2023 season, which is probably looking a little more tempting. Needless to say, the D-backs haven’t exactly gotten Bumgarner from the Giants: Bumgarner has made 35 starts in two seasons (just one more than his final year in San Francisco, the one in which he posted the worst ERA of his career to that time) and has given the D-backs a 5.07 ERA and a total of 188 innings. (He pitched more than 188 innings in a season seven times for the Giants.) Expecting him to compete for the Cy Young again is unreasonable, but one wonders if a modest improvement could at least make him an attractive piece for another team in the next two years. He is younger than you think, only 32 years old, younger than Cuban Aroldis Chapman, Jacob deGrom, DJ LeMahieu, Starling Marte, Miles Mikolas, Tommy Pham and Blake Treinen. He is a young guy! Other superstar pitchers have found that extra speed late. Will he be able to do it?

1. Is it weird to ask if they have enough pitching?

The Dodgers are always such a complete team and prepared for any contingency that comes along that it feels a little weird to ask if they might be short-handed. But hey, maybe they are a little short on arms? At least in the rotation, because we already saw that they have a new closer. When you look at their openers right now, they look like they’re missing arms, right? Walker Buehler and Mexican Julio César Urías: nothing to worry about there. But Clayton Kershaw, as much as he is who he is, only threw 121 2/3 innings last year and he’s 34 years old. After him? Some mix of Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Tony Gonsolin, David Price, maybe Andre Jackson, Mitch White? It’s unclear when Trevor Bauer will be available. There are some good arms there, for sure, but few certainties. If you believe the Dodgers can win 106 games again — and many believe they will — you have more faith in that rotation than I do.

2. It’s World Series or bust, right?

Don’t listen to me. Listen to Dave Roberts:

What a statement, Mr. Roberts: “We are going to win the World Series in 2022. We are going to win the World Series this year. Write it down.” Consider it written, Dave! This speaks, really, of the expectations that there are in Chavez Ravine, not only this year, but every year. When you put together a roster like this, when you put together a lineup like this (Freddie Freeman is on this team now!), winning the World Series is the obvious goal. What else should I say? What else can you say?

1. Those veterans can’t do it again…or can they?

The craziest thing about the Giants’ 107 wins last year — 107 wins! – is that a lot of it was due to older hitters, guys in their 30s who had the best year of their careers, including team veterans like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey. Posey is retired, so the Giants are counting on Belt (33, almost 34) and Crawford (35), plus Evan Longoria (36), Tommy La Stella (33) and Mike Yastrzemski (31) even more than last year. past. But time is not a flat circle: it moves on, making you older and more tired and less effective. The Giants danced through the raindrops last year and didn’t get wet. They can’t do the same thing again, can they? Would something like this be possible?

2. Will fate repeat itself?

Obviously, it is reasonable to ask about the old players who are now older. But the Giants were one of those teams, in 2021, where everything seemed to work from day one. Much of that is the system that Farhan Zaidi and his staff have built: the results speak for themselves, and not just last year. But winning 107 games requires a lot – a lot – of good fortune. Will good luck smile on them again? To such a degree? The Giants could be just as good as last season and win, say, 17 fewer games. And with Posey and Kevin Gausman out of the club, and so many players a year older… they may not be as good as they were last year. Perhaps they are not even close to it. When you compare this roster to the Dodgers or even the Padres, they certainly look weaker. After last year, we should all give them the benefit of the doubt. But there are still many doubts here.

1. Can they stay afloat until Fernando Tatis Jr. returns?

It’s certainly a gut punch to get through that job shutdown and find out, in one of the first news stories after it ended, that one of the most electrifying players in the game is out for three months. Tatis’ broken wrist puts a dark cloud over the Padres, and frankly, after the way things turned out last year, it’s not the only one. Either way, it’s perfectly possible to see Tatis return in mid-June and tear the league apart. Will the Padres still be in postseason contention at that point? If so, there is no better mid-year booster than him.

2. Is it possible for this rotation to improve?

Remember that big discussion at Spring Training last year was whether the top Cy Young candidate in this rotation was Yu Darvish or Blake Snell? Turns out it wasn’t either of them: The best starter on this team, by far, was Joe Musgrove, who also threw a no-hit, no-run. They’re still the top three starters in this rotation, and it goes without saying that the Padres will go wherever they take them. There are reasons to be optimistic: These are three extremely talented pitchers. And now they have a fully recovered Mike Clevinger behind them. We may not have realized how good this rotation is.

1. Can we focus on 2022 for a second?

A lot of the teasing of the Rockies this year has been focused on their long-term plan, which is perfectly reasonable: if your plan is to trade Nolan Arenado and his salary and then come back next year and agree to a mega-contract with Kris Bryant …well, actually I’m not sure you have a plan. But putting all that aside: There’s no question the Rockies should be a better team in 2022. Bryan is here, Randal Grichuk looks like a perfect fit, and the rotation was great last year and should look like that again even without Jon Gray. Now, they won just 74 games last year, so let’s not go off the rails either. But you want your team to be better from one year to the next, right? The Rockies did that.

2. Yes, it is true, but what is the plan?

Lots of Rockies fans are going to buy Kris Bryant jerseys, and they should: Kris Bryant is fantastic. But you feel better as a fan if your club has a clear direction, and it’s far from a certainty that that’s the case with the Rockies. Ryan McMahon’s extension is an investment in a hometown player who hasn’t shown he can be an impact player, Charlie Blackmon was drafted the year the Rockies reached the World Series, and everyone is scared. that the Rockies face another Arenado-style situation with Bryant in two years. The Rockies will improve in 2022, but still not enough to compete, particularly not in this division. So what is going to happen? What are fans going to get excited about next?

I think this division is a bit stronger, from the first to the fifth, than it is usually given credit for. I like the Padres, D-backs and Rockies more than most. And I like the Dodgers and the Giants less than most. But in any case, the Dodgers will have a smooth road. (That was the same thing we said last year too).