LOS ANGELES – Actually, is there anyone better trained to talk about risks on the bases than Dodgers manager Dave Roberts?
It has been more than 17 years since Roberts made one of the most recognizable stolen bases in history, as part of the Red Sox’s long-remembered comeback against the Yankees in the 2004 American League Championship Series.
Now Roberts is in command of a team that takes such risks often. The percentage of retired runners attempting to rob Los Angeles is so low, it seems pointless to stop running.
In nine games this postseason, the Dodgers are 13-13 in steals, including eight in the SCLN against Atlanta. They are the first team to cheat more than one pad in four consecutive playoff games since the Mariners in 1995.
“We’re not thundering or churning out a lot of runs, so we have to find ways to score,” said Mookie Betts, who has been successful in his 13 career base steal attempts in the postseason – the most for a player who doesn’t. has been surprised. “Part of my game is stealing bases. I’m doing whatever it takes to win. “
In the Dodgers’ victory in Game 3, it was a stolen base before Betts hit the ball that ended up being the difference. After Cody Bellinger’s tying homer in the eighth, Chris Taylor singled. Then he stole second base.
The next batter, Matt Beaty, hit what would have been a ground ball for a double play. Instead, Taylor advanced to third, ahead of Betts’ RBI double.
Those 13 base steals have been split among five Dodgers players. As a team, they are taking advantage of rival pitching with some elite jumps. Against Atlanta, they are taking advantage of the slow mechanics to throw to the bases of receiver Travis d’Arnaud.
With those tactical advantages they have tipped the scales in their favor, with a philosophy similar to the one Roberts had 17 years ago at Fenway Park.
Your success at scams is simple. They lean on the numbers, forcing opponents to do almost everything perfectly to avoid a stolen base.
Here, the data of the eight base robberies that the Dodgers have had in the SCLN. The average starting lead – the distance between the runner from the start – was 21 feet. Average sprint speed was 27 feet per second (30 is considered elite).
Second inning, Game 1: Chris TaylorSprint speed: 28.3 feet per second (+1.3 relative to league average) Starting advantage: 23.8 feet (+2.2)
Fifth inning, Game 1: Trea TurnerSprint speed: 30.2 feet per second (+3.2) Starting advantage: 21.2 feet (-0.6)
First inning, Game 2: Gavin LuxSprint speed: 28.6 feet per second (+1.6) Starting advantage: 22.6 feet (+1.0)
Fifth inning, Game 2: Mookie BettsSprint speed: 27.9 feet per second (-1.3) Starting advantage: 26 feet (+4.4)
Sixth inning, Game 2: Chris TaylorSprint speed: 27.9 feet per second (+0.9) Starting advantage: 24.3 feet (+2.7)
Seventh inning, Game 2: Mookie BettsSprint speed: 27.1 feet per second (+0.1) Starting advantage: 26.6 feet (+5.0)
Second inning, Game 3: Mookie BettsSprint speed: 27.8 feet per second (+0.8) Starting advantage: 21 feet (-0.6)
Eighth inning, Game 3: Chris TaylorSprint speed: 28.7 feet per second (+1.7) Starting advantage: 19.1 feet (-2.5)
You can understand why they have run so much. In most of the steals, they have started with a lot of ground gained, compared to the league average.
As Roberts said at the beginning of the series, when you face elite pitching in the postseason, it’s more difficult to build multi-run attacks on singles. But if you can steal a base, you can score without needing that third single.
For a long time, the analytics indicated that it was not very wise to try to steal bases. Why give outs? However, lately teams have started to put that theory behind them. Stealing bases doesn’t mean “giving away outs” if you make sure you have the odds on your side.
The Dodgers are taking calculated risks in this series, with a 100% success rate. And don’t expect to see them slow down.
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