Kiley McDaniel’s Top 100 MLB Prospects for 2022

This year’s list of the top 100 MLB prospects comes at a time when the status of the 2022 season is in limbo, but fear not: The minor league season will start on time, regardless of whether they accept a contract. new labor agreement in the majors.

To provide more context for the more casual prospect fan, I’ve added a few new categories to simplify some of the tool grades and jargon. First, “type”, which categorizes a player for comparison to other players on the roster and from other years. I find that I tend to round up on certain types (more tools, more makeup, medium stats) and round down on others (now speed, right-handed teenagers) and you probably have some preferred prospect types of your own as well.

The second is “reminds me of”. This is not a real comparison, because most players do not have a perfect analog one by one. There’s also a lot of uncertainty with the outlook, so by default, it looks at the most optimistic potential results compared to some current MLB players. I’m basically explaining a player’s rating in a handful of simple words by saying they remind me of a current All Star and they have a high risk player advantage every day but you can also see why a lower risk player might rank higher.

Combined, I think that’s enough simple information to draw your own conclusions: as a fan, aspiring future GM, fantasy team owner, card collector, etc.

Here is a quick overview of the 20-80 scale used widely throughout the roster and standard throughout the baseball industry. For the top tier of prospects, I present their tools as 45/60, meaning it is currently 45 and I projected it will be 60 at maturity. 50 is the major league average (which is a very good current tool for a minor league player), 55 is above average, 45 is below average, 60 is called plus (one standard deviation above average ), 70 is plus-plus (two standard deviations), and 80 (three) is the top of the scale, where only a handful of players in the major leagues reside.

Tools can also be equated to numbers in common use. For game power, 50 equals 15-18 home runs per year, 55 is 19-22, 60 is about 25, 65 is about 30, etc. .260 batting average, average fastball velocity is 92-93 depending on his role and skill, and so on. Other tools, like shots for position players or breaking shots, rely more on visual assessments, but there are some objective numbers to round your observation up or down.

A position player with his grades in the 50s, depending on the position, is probably a very good backup or a weaker starter. This scale from 20 to 80 also applies to the FV (Future Value) number that I use to summarize a player’s total value. A 50 PV (current value) is a 2.0 to 2.5 WAR player. The FV of a prospect who is ready for the big leagues ties in pretty well with this; Top tier (65 FV this year) of prospects projected to have multiple high 4-5 WAR seasons. Last year’s top prospect Wander Franco he was a 70 FV (the highest grade I’ve ever released) and is projected to have multiple seasons at 5-6 WAR, while the MVP winner typically has around 7-8 WAR. The further down the minors, the more it is just a weighted average of potential results and becomes a tiered system of ranking prospects based on their business value relative to top-tier prospects.

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Kiley McDaniel’s Top 100 MLB Prospects for 2022