HALL OF FAME 2022: How is the voting going? Real possibilities and some history

By Jesus Perez Vichot (Chuchi)

After 168 (42.9%) of the Cooperstown Hall of Fame ballots were revealed, only David Ortiz (83.6%), Barry Bonds (78.0%) and roger clemens (76.8%) have been able to reach 75% of the votes necessary for immortality, although nothing has been decided yet.

As a reminder about the process, each year the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) votes on a Hall of Fame class of a pool of former players who qualify to be on the ballot. Those players have been placed on the ballot by the Hall of Fame chosen from a pool of players with a minimum of 10 years in The majors) or are carryovers from past years. The holdovers had to have received at least five percent in the previous vote.

A player can only stay on the ballot for 10 years. If he doesn’t get voted on in those 10 years (Bonds and Clemens are two of the four players who are in their senior years), he will fall off the ballot. Those who don’t get at least five percent of the vote also fall out. Those who get at least 75 percent of the votes enter the Hall of Fame. Voters can only select a maximum of 10 players and there is no minimum (yes, ballots can and have been returned blank).

Let’s just look at an analysis of the ballot and the stories that accompany it:

This will be the last chance for the polarizing quartet. The case of Curt Schilling is truly tragic. It’s probably best for everyone when this is over. He seems to want to not be voted out by baseball writers, whom he referred to as “spineless cowards” last year. Schilling got 71.1 percent of the vote last year, his highest rating yet (he got 38.8 percent in 2013, before he actually spoke about politics, so his self-victimization is absurdly out of line). instead), but also wrote a letter to the Hall requesting that he be removed from the ballot, while attacking the same group of voters who saw more than 70 percent attempt to vote for him. Schilling to date has received 60.1% of the vote from the 159 revealed ballots. This is Schilling’s tenth and final year.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are forever linked, so it’s a bit poetic that they’re heading into their 10th and final season on the ballot together. Bonds got 61.8 percent of the vote last year, while Clemens got 61.6. There is not much to add here. They both achieved dream careers, with 100th percentile stats, but are connected to PED (steroid use) without ever having been suspended under the current testing policy that was in place before they retired. No one is a “maybe” here and most of our minds are made up. But it’s the last time, so it’s still a great story.

Then there’s Sammy Sosa. The Dominican appears on the ballot for the tenth time simply as a formality at this time. He only got 17 percent of the votes last year and today he appears with 25.0%, nothing to do.

A-Rod and Big Papi appear on the ballot for the first time. A-Rod is surely in a similar situation (even worse, I’d say) as Bonds and Clemens. So far that “maybe” about him sounds more negative than positive, receiving only 42.1% of the vote.

Ortiz’s case is different. He was reportedly (via the New York Times in 2009) on a list of players who tested positive for PEDs in 2003, but it was supposed to be an anonymous survey to see if the league needed drug tests. The actual, formal testing was implemented in 2004. Ortiz was never punished in his entire career in the testing era. He has denied the 2003 New York Times report, and Commissioner Rob Manfred has said that the report may well be incorrect. There are still some who will support the report against Ortiz and there are always some who are unhappy with the designated hitter thing. But Ortiz on the field was also convincing. He’s one of the most intriguing names to watch this year, though so far no one has received a higher percentage of votes than him (83.9). Apparently, he has a great chance to get into this, his first appearance.

What other newcomers can avoid being five percent? Last season was a pretty weak overall class of newcomers, but Mark Buehrle (11.0%), Torii Hunter (9.5%) and Tim Hudson (5.2%) all avoided falling off the ballot at their first try. I know A-Rod is pretty controversial, but it’s really hard to see him drop off the ticket in one fell swoop when Manny Ramirez is still riding comfortably (28.2% last year on his fifth try and now he’s 38.1%). Beyond A-Rod and Big Papi, there are other freshman names worth discussing on the ballot. Mark Teixeira is a three-time All-Star with five Gold Gloves, a World Series ring, 1,862 hits and 409 home runs, however, so far he has not reached 5.0% of the votes.

Jimmy Rollins is a three-time All-Star with four Gold Gloves, a World Series ring, an MVP, 2,455 hits, 511 doubles, 115 triples, and 470 steals (he doesn’t even get 15% of the vote).

Joe Nathan ranks eighth all-time in saves, but he’s not getting 5.0% of the vote.

Prince Fielder is a six-time All-Star with three top-four finishes in MVP voting. He led the league in home runs once and RBIs once as well.

Also, there are some others with hardware here. Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard each won an MVP. Jake Peavy won a Cy Young. Tim Lincecum won two. But all four right now are in the elimination zone. We will say that among the newcomers only Ortiz seems to enter.

Can Rolen, Helton, Wagner and Jones keep up the momentum? Aside from no one getting 75 percent of the vote, the biggest story on the 2021 ballot was the rise of a small handful of players. Scott Rolen will be at about half his chances after this vote, but he’s also very likely to be close to, if not quite, inducted into the Hall of Fame. His percentages have been increasing, respectively: 10.2, 17.2, 35.3, 52.9 and now he appears with 70.4, which keeps him with the possibility of reaching the necessary minimum.

Todd Helton is a year behind Rolen and had a better trend: 16.5, 29.2 and 44.9, but today he is at 56.5. Perhaps Larry Walker breaking through the doubts about the force field that the Coors imprints is helping him, but it’s not enough at the moment.

Billy Wagner is sixth all-time in saves and has better rate stats across the board than Nathan and Papelbon. He also faces a difficult fight, but he is buoyed up. It went from 16.7 percent to 31.7 and then 46.4 percent in the last three years. However, he’s around 48.2, he hasn’t made much progress so far.

Andruw Jones received slightly less support last year than the three mentioned above, but he has made a big jump. After just 7.3% and then 7.5 in his first two votes, respectively, he got 19.4 percent and then last year, in his fourth appearance, he got 33.9 percent of the vote. votes. Right now he has 48.8%, much improved, but it doesn’t seem to be enough.

Jumps like this show that you have a real shot at getting into a future.

Is Sheffield pulling Larry Walker? Gary Sheffield was also driven. Sheffield only have three chances left (counting this one). During his first five years on the ticket, he never got more than 13.6 percent of the vote. Then it went to 30.5 percent and last year it reached 40.6. As such, Sheffield needs to move almost 35 per cent in three years. It is a difficult task, but it is not without precedent. Larry Walker got 21.9 percent of the vote on his seventh try. It was his highest point at the time. But then he got 34.1 percent, 54.6 percent and 76.6 percent to win consecration on his 10th and final ballot. If Sheffield is on a similar trajectory, he will go in. He has now received 47.0% of the votes.

One thing that has been shown over the years is that once there is momentum, many of the previous “no” voters begin to join the vote and some decide that their previous position needs to be changed. However, Sheffield needs more than a big push this year. Once you hit the 60 percent range, you’ll become a hot enough topic for your followers to start drawing the attention of naysayers.

How much will Vizquel fall in the end ? Omar Vizquel went from 37 to 42.8 and then 52.6 percent of the vote in his first three times on the ballot and has now dropped sharply to 10.7%. Apparently, this setback is largely due to the news in December 2020 that Vizquel was under investigation for alleged domestic violence. Many Hall of Fame ballots may have already been submitted by the time the news broke. Still, it fell to 49.1 percent last year. In August, it was reported that Vizquel was being sued for sexual harassment. The story included an allegation that he exposed a bat boy who has autism. These are far more serious matters than whether or not Vizquel is inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Vizquel could stay on the ballot, but it seems doubtful that he will come close to immortality.

For my part, more than three players should get at least 75% of the vote, but if Bonds and Clemens get in, considering their respective careers and that they’re in their 10th chance for eligibility, I’d settle for this year.