Five batsmen ready for a comeback

It’s a story that repeats itself every year: Great hitters who suffer uncharacteristic slumps, can’t outrun them and end up having seasons far below expectations. The 2021 campaign was no exception and there are several candidates to rebound and resume their production standards in 2022.

With that in mind, here we leave you with five players who should find their rhythm again in 2022.

Trevor Story–SS
Key number: 37.4 xHR

Much like Nolan Arenado the year before, Story had a disappointing season with the Rockies amid a whirlwind of trade rumors in 2021. While he hit 24 home runs and stole 20 bases, his production at the plate was far of his standards: He hit .251/.329/.471 (103 OPS+) in 142 games, following a .292/.355/.554 (123 OPS+) line between 2018 and 2020.

There are plenty of reasons to hope for a Story rebound, though. First, now that he’s signed with the Red Sox, he won’t have to deal with the Coors “hangover” effect. Without having to come down from Denver’s height for a dozen or more trips each season and having to deal with changing breaking pitches after watching sliders and curveballs go “flat” in the thin air of Coors Field, Story could put numbers that we have not seen before him.

Story was also injured in 2021, with an elbow problem that affected him not only at the plate, but also defensively. A completely healthy Story has the potential to explode again with the wood. In addition, he is only 29 years old, still in the prime of his career.

And then there are several peripheral stats from Story last year that suggest he’s not far from finding his form offensively. No one had a bigger gap between his actual homers and his expected home runs (via Statcast) than Story, whose xHR was 13 more than his total home runs. He also had a better expected wOBA (.336) than he did in 2020 (.334), when his OPS was 73 points better. His 42.6% hard drive rate and 9.9% pot rate were also better than in 2020.

Cody Bellinger — CF, Dodgers
Key number: .907 OPS in the 2021 postseason

It’s hard to see what Bellinger did in the 2021 regular round and find good news. He was one of the least productive players in the Major Leagues and even looking beyond the traditional numbers, things are not encouraging. Compared to what he did when he was NL MVP in 2019, the quality of contact made by Bellinger was much worse, as he was almost completely unable to handle fast pitches.

Fortunately, there is a reasonable explanation for all this. Bellinger had to have surgery on his right shoulder after the 2020 postseason, a big hurdle for anyone. Then, before he could start the engines in 2021, he suffered a hairline fracture in his left fibula that kept him out until May. Then he was hit by hamstring and rib injuries that paused his year twice more. All things considered, it’s only reasonable not to pay too much attention to Bellinger’s 2021, especially when his stellar postseason production showed that the skills that made him a star are still there.

Will the 2019 Bellinger return? Maybe not, but it shouldn’t be surprising if, at 26 and coming off a normal offseason, he sees an above-average hitter again in 2022. Combine that with his speed and solid defense at multiple positions, and we’re still in presence of a very valuable player.

DJ LeMahieu — INF, Yankees
Key number: 44% hard-hitting rate in 2021

After finishing in the top five in MVP voting in his first two seasons with the Yankees, LeMahieu’s numbers took a big dip last year.

2019-20: .336 AVG, .536 SLG, .922 OPS, 146 OPS+

2021: .268 AVG, .362 SLG, .711 OPS, and 97 OPS+

But there are some optimistic stats: LeMahieu’s hard-hit rate (43.5%) wasn’t too far off from 2019-20 (47.4%). And the number of fly balls and line drives he threw last year was on par with what he showed the previous two seasons. He continued to show that tendency to go to the opposite wing that has given him so many good results, with three-quarters of his connections going to center or right field, much like he did in 2019-20. And based on the quality of the contact he made, the 2020 batting champion ranked 89th percentile in MLB in Statcast’s expected batting average stat in 2021.

LaMahieu also ranked in the 96th percentile in MLB for missed swing rate, 91st percentile in strikeout rate, and 73rd percentile in walk rate. He swung fewer than ever at pitches outside the strike zone (20.5%), and when he did throw at pitches in the zone, he made contact 90% of the time. That sounds a lot more like LeMahieu than the traditional antics of him. Oh, and he also had to deal with a sports hernia down the stretch that he needed surgery for in the winter. A healthy LeMahieu should bounce back in 2022.

Carlos Santana — 1B, Royals
Key number: -.078 difference between his SLG and his xSLG in 2021

The Dominican slugged .342 last year, the worst of his career. But peripheral statistics tell us that it wasn’t all negative. His expected slugging percentage, which is based on the quality of contact made plus strikeouts, was .420. That -.078 gap between current and expected slugging percentage was the second-largest among any slugger with at least 350 batted balls in 2021, trailing only Freddie Freeman (.503 SLG, .583 xSLG). Now, .420 isn’t exactly an elite number, but it’s much closer to the consistent producer Santana has been in recent years. He also had a -.030 difference between his current and expected batting average, which reinforces the idea that he should have done better in 2021 and also suggests a return to his rhythm in 2022. .

Even in a down year, Santana still displayed the plate discipline that has made him famous, ranking in the 85th percentile for strikeout rate, 92nd percentile for walk rate and 84th percentile for swings to poor pitches, all positive signs. looking ahead to 2022.

Francisco Lindor — SS, Mets
Key number: .822 OPS after June 1

Puerto Rican Lindor’s first year in Queens? Let’s just say it didn’t go like him and the Mets expected it. Coming in in a mega-trade with Cleveland and signing a 10-year, $341 million extension just before Opening Day, the star shortstop posted a .530 OPS in the first month of the season before being caught up in the bizarre episode of the “raccoon/rat” with his teammate Jeff McNeil. Oh, and the Mets ended up setting an unwelcome record for most days spent in first place by a team that eventually went under .500.

As bad as things turned out, Lindor ended up putting a positive spin on his year near the end. After June 1, the switch hitter – who has a career .821 OPS – produced a .253/.342/.480 line (.822 OPS) and showed off his stellar defense at shortstop, finishing second. in the Major Leagues with 20 Outs Above Average.

Several of Lindor’s peripheral metrics, including a career-high 44.1% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph (very close to his personal best), make it clear his bat is still impactful. And while his strikeout rate was the worst of his career, it was just 18.3% — well below the league average of 23.3% — and his walk rate was his best since coming to the majors ( 11.1%). If not for the right-side oblique strain that cost him five weeks early in the second half, his total numbers probably would have been a lot closer to his career. Already more adapted to his new home, the 28-year-old star must return to the type of production that he has accustomed us to.

We want to say thanks to the writer of this short article for this remarkable material

Five batsmen ready for a comeback