MLB.com began evaluating prospects in 2004. Since then, in the inter-season rankings, and more recently in the mid-season updates, a total of 16 players have been listed as the No. 1 prospects in baseball.
With the most recent No. 1, Dominican Wander Franco, being promoted by the Rays to make his debut in the majors, we believe it is time to evaluate those 16 players, based on the expectation that existed at the time of their debuts. We already know that not all promises are the same, so we will try to compare what was expected of each one at the time.
Some will surprise you. Many fell short of (or exceeded) the promise that comes with being the best prospect. It is consistent with the timing of your promotions and the difference in time when it occurred.
Definitely, we got carried away by the recent success of some. But there is no question that expectations now are higher than in the past, thanks in part to the type of coverage that prospects are given today.
Here’s MLB.com’s No. 1 prospect ranking. The year they were at the top is in parentheses.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (2018 mid-season and 2019 preseason)
The expectation around the Dominican was impressive, and all for good reason. He is the first prospect with an evaluation of 80 in his batting grade. He graduated from the minors hitting .331 / .414 / .531.
2. Shohei Ohtani, RHP / OF, Angels (2018 preseason)
We’ve never seen anything like it, and while his time as a prospect was short, his skills in both facets of the game put him near the top of the list.
3. Wander Franco, SS, Rays (2019 mid-season, 2020 preseason, mid-2020, 2021 preseason)
4. Byron Buxton, OF, Twins (2014-2015 Preseason, Mid 2013-2015)
Although this is when he has lived up to the hype when he’s healthy – and now he’s injured again – no one doubted Buxton’s five tools as a prospect. He was voted second in the 2012 Amateur Draft and was our best promise on five consecutive lists.
5. Delmon Young, OF, Rays (205-2007 preseason)
Young was the first draft pick in the 2003 amateur draft. He was our top prospect for three years in a row, and twice appeared in the Future All-Star Game. He had his moments in the majors. He came second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2007, 10th in MVP voting in 2010 and was the MVP of the 2012 American League Championship Series.
6. Mike Trout, OF, Angels (2011 Preseason)
Because of what he’s done since, we’re tempted to put him higher on the list. Although he was highly rated, he was only in first place once and was third behind Matt Moore (see below) and Bryce Harper in 2012.
7. Joe Mauer, C, Twins (2004 preseason)
Our first No. 1 prospect was Mauer. He was the first player selected in the 2001 Amateur Draft and was considered one of the best promises in the game, before having a Hall of Fame career that included six All-Star Games, an LA MVP award, five Silver Bats and three Gold Gloves.
8. Yoán Moncada, 2B, White Sox (Mid 2007)
The Cuban became a valued prospect when the Red Sox signed him for $ 31.5 million in March 2016 and he debuted on that year’s list in seventh position. Then it stayed in second place in two rankings in a row. He was traded to the White Sox and then appeared in first place in mid-2007.
9. David Price, LZ, Rays (2009 preseason)
Price got to the majors so fast that he hardly received his value as a prospect. It was an easy decision as the top pick in the 2007 amateur draft and he debuted on the 2008 roster in 11th place, the year he impressed everyone from the Rays bullpen. He jumped to first place in the following preseason, but that same year he graduated as a prospect.
10. Matt Moore, LZ, Rays (2012 preseason)
In hindsight, it seems ridiculous that Moore was ahead of Trout and Harper before the 2012 season. But by then, he appeared to be the pitcher of the future. Injuries prevented him from reaching his potential.
11. Alex Bregman, SS / 3B, Astros (Mid 2016)
Another prospect who rose quickly through the minors, Bregman was selected second in the 2015 amateur draft and a year later he was in the majors. It debuted at 27th on the list that year. Before 2016, he was 22nd, but then he came in first place due to his big year in the minors.
12. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox (2017 preseason)
He was the Red Sox’s first pick in the 2015 Amateur Draft. He was 74th on the list that summer. He was already in the top 10 in the mid-2016 rankings and reached first place before the 2017 season. He finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting for 2017.
13. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves (2010 preseason)
Heyward now receives more attention for his defensive quality (five Gold Gloves) and yes, for his contract. But before the 2010 season, he was considered one of the best prospects in the game. He made his debut in 2010 with Atlanta and finished second in the rookie of the year voting.
14. Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers (2016 preseason)
The Dodgers drafted Seager in the first round of the 2012 amateur draft and the shortstop had impressive numbers in 2014 and 2015 in the minors, leading him to his major debut in the majors in 2015 (.337 / .425 / .561 ).
15. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers (Mid 2012, 2013 preseason)
The Curaçao did not establish himself in the majors until he played daily in middle with the Rangers and Athletics in 2018-2019 and is now mostly a patrolman with the Padres. But he was a shortstop sensation during his rise through the minors and the biggest promise before 2013.
16. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds (2008 preseason)
He was part of the 2015 Amateur Draft that featured high school players Justin Upton (1st), Cameron Maybin (10th) and Andrew McCutchen (11th). Bruce was ahead of Maybin and McCutchen on the 2008 list, after a great season the previous year in which he hit .319 with 26 home runs across three levels in the minors.
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